Mon, Nov 27, 2023·Madison Square Garden, New York
Buffalo Sabres 5, New York Rangers 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 19 | 113 | 317 | 539 |
| NYR | 012 | 011 | 13 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:41BUFJJ PeterkaAssists: Victor Olofsson, Owen Power · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 19:33BUFAlex TuchGWGAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P3 8:08NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Artemi Panarin · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 15:31BUFAlex TuchAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Owen Power · Snap, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 18:29BUFCasey MittelstadtENAssists: Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.75 xG4–1
- P3 19:53BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Henri Jokiharju, Victor Olofsson · Snap, 0.09 xG5–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:26BUFAlex Tuch: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:20BUFMattias Samuelsson: Holding2 min
- P2 4:15NYRWill Cuylle: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 5:43NYRTyler Pitlick: Interference2 min
- P3 8:01BUFZach Benson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Mittelstadt
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Tuch – Mittelstadt11:04
xG 1.23–0.04 (97%)attempts 20–5goals 2–0
- Okposo – Olofsson – Krebs11:24
xG 0.28–0.37 (43%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Cozens – Peterka – Benson13:12
xG 0.47–0.69 (40%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Clifton2:32
xG 0.53–0.08 (88%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Power12:40
xG 0.46–0.23 (66%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Clifton – Samuelsson3:05
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière12:00
xG 0.99–0.16 (86%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Wheeler – Bonino – Vesey2:00
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Panarin2:09
xG 0.01–0.10 (7%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Goodrow – Vesey4:33
xG 0.17–0.36 (32%)attempts 4–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Gustafsson – Lindgren11:46
xG 0.62–0.57 (52%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Trouba – Miller16:18
xG 0.66–0.90 (42%)attempts 18–23goals 0–2
- Jones – Schneider13:16
xG 0.44–0.78 (36%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).