Mon, Nov 27, 2023·Ball Arena, Denver
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 014 | 113 | 012 | 139 |
| COL | 18 | 28 | 17 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:12COLRyan JohansenUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 1:48COLRyan JohansenGWGAssists: Tomas Tatar, Cale Makar · Snap, 0.19 xG0–2
- P2 3:35COLCale MakarPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–3
- P2 19:29TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 16:46COLValeri NichushkinENAssists: Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.61 xG1–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 10:43COLBowen Byram: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:25COLCale Makar: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 2:07TBLCalvin de Haan: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 8:32TBLBrandon Hagel: Holding2 min
- P2 12:10TBLMichael Eyssimont: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:21TBLTyler Motte: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:31COLBowen Byram: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:32TBLTyler Motte: Holding2 min
- P3 18:30COLMiles Wood: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:30TBLBrandon Hagel: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:30TBLMichael Eyssimont: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:30TBLTanner Jeannot: Misconduct10 min
- P3 18:30COLJack Johnson: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Colton won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPaul – Jeannot – Koepke5:16
xG 0.63–0.17 (79%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Watson – Glendening – Motte4:17
xG 0.05–0.07 (39%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Motte – Paul – Jeannot3:04
xG 0.08–0.12 (40%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Stamkos – Cirelli – Eyssimont8:40
xG 0.12–0.39 (23%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Raddysh9:14
xG 0.82–0.42 (66%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Cernak – Sergachev11:15
xG 0.19–0.12 (61%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- de Haan – Cernak2:01
xG 0.02–0.02 (42%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWood – Colton – O'Connor9:39
xG 0.63–0.26 (71%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen11:48
xG 0.44–0.40 (52%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Olofsson – Kiviranta7:19
xG 0.05–0.02 (76%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Tatar – Johansen – Drouin6:25
xG 0.55–0.82 (40%)attempts 8–17goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar12:25
xG 0.48–0.39 (55%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
- Johnson – Jones6:45
xG 0.16–0.10 (62%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Makar – Byram2:35
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).