Tue, Nov 28, 2023·Prudential Center, Newark
New York Islanders 4, New Jersey Devils 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 18 | 312 | 06 | 426 |
| NJD | 18 | 110 | 315 | 533 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:16NYIBo HorvatPPAssists: Noah Dobson, Mathew Barzal · Slap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 10:29NJDMichael McLeodAssists: Curtis Lazar · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 4:19NJDDawson MercerAssists: Jack Hughes, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 8:24NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Anders Lee, Noah Dobson · Snap, 0.23 xG2–2
- P2 9:40NYICal ClutterbuckAssists: Casey Cizikas, Julien Gauthier · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–2
- P2 13:05NYIJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Mathew Barzal, Alexander Romanov · Snap, 0.21 xG4–2
- P3 5:08NJDJack HughesAssists: Dawson Mercer, Brendan Smith · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 11:10NJDNico HischierPPAssists: Jack Hughes, Luke Hughes · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–4
- P3 19:37NJDCurtis LazarGWGAssists: Kevin Bahl, Michael McLeod · Backhand, 0.16 xG4–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:47NJDDawson Mercer: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 5:35NYICasey Cizikas: Holding2 min
- P1 15:19NJDDougie Hamilton: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:00NYIKyle Palmieri: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:43NJDJesper Bratt: Interference2 min
- P3 10:35NYIMathew Barzal: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:56NYISimon Holmstrom: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:48NJDBrendan Smith: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:56NJDBrendan Smith: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:56NYIAnders Lee: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tierney won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Cizikas – Gauthier8:44
xG 0.80–0.33 (71%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
- Lee – Horvat – Barzal9:55
xG 0.90–0.53 (63%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Engvall11:37
xG 0.48–0.57 (46%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
- Pageau – Wahlstrom – Holmstrom6:44
xG 0.08–0.18 (31%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Hutton4:30
xG 0.85–0.06 (93%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Reilly – Pulock3:10
xG 0.15–0.10 (59%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Dobson16:43
xG 0.56–0.58 (49%)attempts 7–21goals 2–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Bratt – Hischier10:52
xG 0.71–0.33 (68%)attempts 19–4goals 0–1
- Toffoli – Hughes – Mercer11:20
xG 0.72–0.61 (54%)attempts 15–9goals 2–0
- Lazar – McLeod – Holtz9:35
xG 0.67–0.83 (45%)attempts 17–9goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestSiegenthaler – Hughes7:18
xG 0.61–0.11 (85%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler6:39
xG 0.34–0.21 (61%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- Miller – Hughes3:20
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).