Tue, Nov 28, 2023·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Nashville Predators 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 011 | 114 | 16 | 00 | 231 |
| NSH | 29 | 08 | 07 | 11 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:20NSHMichael McCarronAssists: Tyson Barrie, Gustav Nyquist · Deflected, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 18:38NSHMichael McCarronAssists: Philip Tomasino, Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–2
- P2 5:49PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 2:26PITBryan RustAssists: John Ludvig, Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 0:14NSHFilip ForsbergGWGAssists: Roman Josi, Ryan O'Reilly · Snap, 0.28 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:14PITJeff Carter: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:58NSHJeremy Lauzon: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:44PITJohn Ludvig: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:44NSHMichael McCarron: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:26PITJansen Harkins: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:22PITMarcus Pettersson: Holding2 min
- P3 5:28NSHCole Smith: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Guentzel14:29
xG 1.04–0.19 (85%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Eller – Harkins – Zohorna8:16
xG 0.61–0.30 (67%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Malkin – Smith – O'Connor11:58
xG 0.49–0.34 (59%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Carter – Nieto – Acciari4:40
xG 0.18–0.20 (47%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Pettersson7:02
xG 0.48–0.03 (94%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Ludvig2:03
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Letang – Graves7:05
xG 0.46–0.23 (66%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- McCarron – Tomasino – Smith2:21
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Smith5:54
xG 0.12–0.19 (38%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
- Sherwood – Parssinen – Evangelista4:25
xG 0.01–0.21 (4%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Tomasino2:25
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Barrie2:49
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Schenn3:23
xG 0.29–0.00 (98%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Fabbro2:31
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).