Tue, Nov 28, 2023·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Arizona Coyotes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 08 | 112 | 011 | 131 |
| ARI | 18 | 17 | 112 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:21ARIMichael CarconeAssists: Michael Kesselring, Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 5:42ARITravis BoydGWGAssists: Joshua Brown, Connor Ingram · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 15:22TBLBrayden PointAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brandon Hagel · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 7:22ARIMichael CarconeAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Jason Zucker · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:15TBLTanner Jeannot: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:15ARIJoshua Brown: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:21ARIMathew Dumba: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:28ARILiam O'Brien: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:10TBLSteven Stamkos: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:20TBLNikita Kucherov: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Cirelli – Barré-Boulet7:12
xG 0.50–0.07 (88%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel11:36
xG 0.98–0.70 (58%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Paul – Barré-Boulet – Koepke3:12
xG 0.20–0.11 (66%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Glendening – Motte – Jeannot2:08
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCernak – Sergachev16:15
xG 1.07–0.72 (60%)attempts 22–12goals 0–1
- Hedman – Perbix15:06
xG 0.63–0.51 (55%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
- Fleury – Raddysh11:35
xG 0.48–0.40 (54%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestZucker – Bjugstad – Maccelli2:24
xG 0.34–0.14 (70%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Boyd – O'Brien – Kelemen5:40
xG 0.05–0.13 (28%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Cooley14:34
xG 0.47–0.55 (46%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli10:10
xG 0.55–0.71 (44%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDurzi – Moser13:24
xG 1.33–1.06 (56%)attempts 20–13goals 1–0
- Stecher – Moser3:04
xG 0.12–0.14 (46%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Stecher – Kesselring11:05
xG 0.11–0.30 (27%)attempts 7–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).