Thu, Nov 30, 2023·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 05 | 219 | 25 | 429 |
| TBL | 217 | 07 | 017 | 241 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:06TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 12:33TBLTanner JeannotPPAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Nikita Kucherov · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 8:53PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 19:24PITDrew O'ConnorAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 2:49PITJeff CarterGWGAssists: Matt Nieto, Marcus Pettersson · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 18:52PITTristan JarryENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.33 xG4–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 10:36PITNoel Acciari: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 12:50TBLErik Cernak: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:37PITDrew O'Connor: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- Malkin – Smith – O'Connor11:29
xG 0.67–0.67 (50%)attempts 16–14goals 1–1
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel14:50
xG 0.65–0.73 (47%)attempts 21–18goals 1–0
- Carter – Nieto – Acciari7:29
xG 0.24–0.39 (38%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Eller – Harkins – Zohorna4:53
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Pettersson19:08
xG 1.07–0.54 (67%)attempts 25–19goals 2–0
- Letang – Ludvig8:30
xG 0.21–0.20 (52%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Ludvig2:20
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Kucherov – Point14:54
xG 0.93–0.61 (60%)attempts 19–18goals 1–2
- Paul – Jeannot – Barré-Boulet9:39
xG 0.43–0.12 (78%)attempts 20–6goals 0–0
- Glendening – Motte – Koepke4:41
xG 0.23–0.30 (44%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Cirelli – Hagel – Eyssimont11:25
xG 0.38–0.51 (43%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Perbix10:32
xG 0.94–0.44 (68%)attempts 18–11goals 1–2
- de Haan – Raddysh10:39
xG 0.65–0.16 (80%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Hedman – Raddysh5:23
xG 0.19–0.06 (76%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).