Thu, Nov 30, 2023·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Colorado Avalanche 3, Arizona Coyotes 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 112 | 18 | 110 | 01 | 331 |
| ARI | 010 | 212 | 13 | 18 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:31COLCale MakarPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 3:03ARITravis BoydAssists: Liam O'Brien, J.J. Moser · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 4:44COLMiles WoodAssists: Caleb Jones, Ross Colton · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 16:22ARINick SchmaltzPPAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Clayton Keller · Slap, 0.26 xG2–2
- P3 1:08ARIMichael CarconeAssists: Troy Stecher, Michael Kesselring · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 11:04COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Cale Makar, Mikko Rantanen · Slap, 0.10 xG3–3
- OT 4:39ARINick BjugstadGWGUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 14:06COLJosh Manson: Holding2 min
- P1 18:08ARILawson Crouse: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:39ARIMichael Carcone: Holding2 min
- P2 16:11COLCaleb Jones: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 9:49ARILiam O'Brien: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P3 9:49ARILiam O'Brien: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:49COLJosh Manson: Fighting5 min
- OT 2:36COLBowen Byram: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWood – Colton – O'Connor9:47
xG 0.31–0.17 (64%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Cogliano – Olofsson – Kiviranta6:18
xG 0.10–0.06 (64%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen14:22
xG 0.58–0.55 (51%)attempts 17–18goals 0–0
- Tatar – Johansen – Drouin7:01
xG 0.16–0.26 (37%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Byram2:44
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Makar – Byram3:06
xG 0.25–0.14 (64%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Manson – Byram11:43
xG 0.21–0.26 (45%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestZucker – Boyd – O'Brien2:25
xG 0.13–0.05 (75%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli12:12
xG 0.58–0.52 (52%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Zucker – Kerfoot – Carcone10:53
xG 0.34–0.32 (52%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Boyd – O'Brien – Maccelli2:17
xG 0.00–0.06 (6%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDurzi – Moser15:16
xG 0.56–0.31 (65%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Dumba – Brown6:29
xG 0.27–0.07 (79%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Stecher – Kesselring10:45
xG 0.50–0.31 (62%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).