Sat, Dec 2, 2023·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Buffalo Sabres 2, Carolina Hurricanes 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 07 | 07 | 28 | 222 |
| CAR | 210 | 311 | 116 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:26CARSebastian AhoAssists: Seth Jarvis, Jaccob Slavin · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 16:36CARJack DruryAssists: Martin Necas, Jalen Chatfield · Snap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 1:06CARSebastian AhoPPGWGAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Brent Burns · Slap, 0.20 xG0–3
- P2 14:12CARStefan NoesenAssists: Martin Necas, Jaccob Slavin · Snap, 0.24 xG0–4
- P2 18:04CARTeuvo TeravainenPPAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–5
- P3 4:08BUFCasey MittelstadtAssists: Alex Tuch, Henri Jokiharju · Snap, 0.07 xG1–5
- P3 8:05CARBrady SkjeiSHAssists: Teuvo Teravainen · Slap, 0.12 xG1–6
- P3 9:24BUFTyson JostAssists: Peyton Krebs · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–6
Penalties (12)
- P1 7:23CARStefan Noesen: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:23BUFRasmus Dahlin: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:23CARStefan Noesen: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:53BUFAlex Tuch: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 3:28CARAndrei Svechnikov: Slashing2 min
- P2 4:40CARSebastian Aho: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 17:45BUFKyle Okposo: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 17:45BUFConnor Clifton: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:45CARMichael Bunting: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:42CARSebastian Aho: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 19:10BUFConnor Clifton: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:10CARJack Drury: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Mittelstadt
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Okposo – Greenway – Krebs3:06
xG 0.10–0.08 (54%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Okposo – Krebs – Biro3:29
xG 0.10–0.11 (47%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Cozens – Peterka – Benson7:17
xG 0.07–0.46 (14%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
- Skinner – Tuch – Mittelstadt14:30
xG 0.21–1.24 (14%)attempts 8–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Johnson – Power3:20
xG 0.10–0.20 (32%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Power9:36
xG 0.15–0.37 (29%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
- Clifton – Jokiharju4:24
xG 0.00–0.39 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNoesen – Necas – Drury9:22
xG 1.51–0.18 (89%)attempts 20–4goals 2–1
- Staal – Fast – Martinook10:43
xG 0.90–0.10 (90%)attempts 12–3goals 0–1
- Bunting – Aho – Jarvis10:38
xG 0.71–0.20 (78%)attempts 21–8goals 1–0
- Teravainen – Kotkaniemi – Svechnikov9:29
xG 0.66–0.29 (69%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSkjei – Pesce17:45
xG 1.67–0.09 (95%)attempts 29–5goals 0–0
- Burns – Slavin14:57
xG 1.28–0.32 (80%)attempts 26–10goals 2–0
- Orlov – Chatfield14:28
xG 0.66–0.36 (65%)attempts 14–10goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).