Sat, Dec 2, 2023·Honda Center, Anaheim
Colorado Avalanche 3, Anaheim Ducks 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 314 | 09 | 012 | 02 | 0 | 337 |
| ANA | 114 | 210 | 08 | 05 | 1 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:36COLBowen ByramAssists: Miles Wood, Ross Colton · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 8:59COLBowen ByramAssists: Fredrik Olofsson, Josh Manson · Snap, 0.11 xG2–0
- P1 14:05ANAAdam HenriquePPAssists: Ryan Strome, Frank Vatrano · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P1 19:17COLDevon ToewsAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Snap, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 2:58ANALeo CarlssonAssists: Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
- P2 10:22ANAAlex KillornPPAssists: Leo Carlsson, Pavel Mintyukov · Snap, 0.10 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. COL Jonathan Drouin stopped
- 2. ANA Alex Killorn stopped
- 3. COL Nathan MacKinnon stopped
- 4. ANA Leo Carlsson scored
- 5. COL Mikko Rantanen stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:00ANABo Groulx: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 12:57COLJosh Manson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:59ANARadko Gudas: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:23COLCaleb Jones: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 16:15ANABo Groulx: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 3:31COLRoss Colton: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Colton won the faceoff against Carrick
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWood – MacKinnon – Rantanen2:14
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen15:53
xG 0.88–0.68 (56%)attempts 20–13goals 1–0
- Wood – Colton – O'Connor7:59
xG 0.45–0.44 (51%)attempts 9–14goals 1–0
- Tatar – Johansen – Drouin5:43
xG 0.09–0.19 (31%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar11:23
xG 0.60–0.13 (83%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Johnson – Manson3:47
xG 0.18–0.08 (70%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Makar – Byram3:13
xG 0.19–0.13 (61%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Jones – Groulx4:16
xG 0.39–0.07 (85%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Henrique – Jones – Leason2:52
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Killorn – Terry – Carlsson13:18
xG 0.63–0.69 (48%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Carrick – McGinn – Leason8:12
xG 0.32–0.45 (41%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Lyubushkin – Mintyukov12:09
xG 0.48–0.43 (53%)attempts 15–7goals 1–1
- Fowler – LaCombe15:46
xG 0.64–0.75 (46%)attempts 12–21goals 0–1
- Gudas – Vaakanainen14:09
xG 0.51–0.73 (41%)attempts 14–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).