Sat, Dec 2, 2023·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vancouver Canucks 4, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 27 | 19 | 16 | 422 |
| CGY | 18 | 07 | 29 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:03VANQuinn HughesAssists: Brock Boeser, Filip Hronek · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 8:38VANSam LaffertyAssists: Ilya Mikheyev, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–0
- P1 12:18CGYMikael BacklundPPAssists: Adam Ruzicka, MacKenzie Weegar · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 19:32VANIlya MikheyevAssists: Elias Pettersson, Sam Lafferty · Bat, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 15:39CGYElias LindholmAssists: Yegor Sharangovich, Chris Tanev · Tip-in, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 18:40VANElias PetterssonENGWGAssists: Nikita Zadorov, Tyler Myers · Deflected, 0.45 xG4–2
- P3 19:06CGYElias LindholmPPAssists: Noah Hanifin, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 10:27VANAndrei Kuzmenko: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 15:11CGYMartin Pospisil: Holding2 min
- P1 0:00VANDakota Joshua: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:01CGYChris Tanev: Holding2 min
- P2 5:00CGYBlake Coleman: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:20VANFilip Hronek: Interference2 min
- P2 17:24CGYMacKenzie Weegar: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:32VANJ.T. Miller: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:00VANNoah Juulsen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Pettersson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestLafferty – Pettersson – Mikheyev8:32
xG 0.86–0.40 (68%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Blueger – Joshua – Garland5:58
xG 0.07–0.08 (48%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Miller – Boeser – Kuzmenko9:23
xG 0.34–0.58 (36%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Hoglander – Aman4:49
xG 0.00–0.27 (0%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Zadorov11:18
xG 0.58–0.22 (73%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Cole – Juulsen9:14
xG 0.39–0.06 (86%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Hronek – Hughes12:48
xG 0.18–0.70 (21%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Huberdeau8:39
xG 0.49–0.23 (68%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Kadri – Pospisil – Zary5:31
xG 0.28–0.15 (65%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Kadri – Lindholm – Sharangovich2:21
xG 0.04–0.02 (71%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Greer – Dube – Ruzicka3:58
xG 0.17–0.36 (32%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hanifin14:26
xG 0.69–0.49 (58%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Weegar – Andersson14:14
xG 0.79–0.80 (50%)attempts 23–12goals 0–0
- Oesterle – Gilbert7:17
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).