Sun, Dec 3, 2023·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Chicago Blackhawks 1, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 011 | 06 | 112 | 129 |
| MIN | 315 | 111 | 08 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:11MINMarco RossiAssists: Brock Faber, Mats Zuccarello · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 12:08MINMarco RossiPPGWGAssists: Frederick Gaudreau, Brock Faber · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–2
- P1 17:07MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Kirill Kaprizov, Alex Goligoski · Slap, 0.18 xG0–3
- P2 11:36MINMatt BoldyPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Jared Spurgeon · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–4
- P3 12:55CHITaylor RaddyshPPAssists: Tyler Johnson, Connor Bedard · Deflected, 0.17 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:48MINMatt Boldy: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:27CHITyler Johnson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:57CHINick Foligno: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:13CHIMacKenzie Entwistle: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 2:19MINAlex Goligoski: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:17MINBrandon Duhaime: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dickinson won the faceoff against Rossi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Dickinson – Anderson4:10
xG 0.14–0.02 (85%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Donato – Raddysh4:21
xG 0.05–0.07 (43%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Dickinson – Anderson – Entwistle5:39
xG 0.13–0.32 (29%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Guttman – Kurashev – Bedard3:32
xG 0.14–0.33 (29%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Korchinski6:34
xG 0.21–0.10 (68%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Crevier – Korchinski3:16
xG 0.13–0.17 (43%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Tinordi – Crevier2:57
xG 0.01–0.15 (5%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Foligno – Gaudreau9:02
xG 0.92–0.09 (91%)attempts 15–2goals 0–0
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy11:49
xG 0.78–0.24 (76%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Rossi11:39
xG 0.62–0.13 (83%)attempts 13–3goals 2–0
- Hartman – Duhaime – Dewar10:16
xG 0.18–0.45 (28%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Faber15:50
xG 1.14–0.19 (86%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Spurgeon – Middleton13:18
xG 0.65–0.16 (81%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Brodin – Middleton2:06
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).