Sun, Dec 3, 2023·Madison Square Garden, New York
San Jose Sharks 5, New York Rangers 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 29 | 19 | 210 | 528 |
| NYR | 315 | 114 | 27 | 636 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:50SJSAnthony DuclairAssists: Kyle Burroughs · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 8:44NYRArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Adam Fox · Deflected, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 12:21SJSRyan CarpenterAssists: Jan Rutta · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P1 12:55NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Alexis Lafrenière · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–2
- P1 16:42NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Chris Kreider, Jonny Brodzinski · Snap, 0.16 xG2–3
- P2 9:16SJSJacob MacDonaldPPAssists: Kevin Labanc, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
- P2 16:03NYRWill CuylleAssists: Nick Bonino, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 4:41NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Jonny Brodzinski · Backhand, 0.20 xG3–5
- P3 13:04NYRK'Andre MillerGWGAssists: Artemi Panarin, Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–6
- P3 14:38SJSFabian ZetterlundAssists: Mikael Granlund, Anthony Duclair · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–6
- P3 15:50SJSAlexander BarabanovAssists: Calen Addison, Tomas Hertl · Tip-in, 0.11 xG5–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:49SJSJacob MacDonald: High sticking2 min
- P1 7:55SJSWilliam Eklund: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:32SJSRyan Carpenter: Holding2 min
- P2 7:17NYRMika Zibanejad: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:16SJSMatt Benning: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P2 11:32NYRWill Cuylle: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Granlund won the faceoff against Trocheck
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Carpenter – Labanc9:06
xG 0.62–0.28 (69%)attempts 15–6goals 1–1
- Hertl – Barabanov – Eklund11:20
xG 0.47–0.23 (67%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Granlund – Duclair – Zetterlund10:24
xG 1.19–1.17 (50%)attempts 17–14goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestFerraro – Addison2:53
xG 0.50–0.23 (69%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Benning – Addison6:35
xG 0.57–0.49 (54%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Rutta – Okhotiuk10:44
xG 0.48–0.64 (43%)attempts 15–12goals 1–2
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière13:25
xG 1.48–1.02 (59%)attempts 22–15goals 2–2
- Wheeler – Bonino – Cuylle8:18
xG 0.26–0.30 (46%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
- Pitlick – Goodrow – Vesey9:05
xG 0.18–0.23 (44%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zibanejad – Brodzinski9:46
xG 0.26–0.55 (32%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGustafsson – Schneider12:49
xG 0.81–0.43 (65%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Trouba – Miller16:09
xG 1.18–0.86 (58%)attempts 24–12goals 4–2
- Gustafsson – Fox2:10
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).