Sun, Dec 3, 2023·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Nashville Predators 2, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 214 | 08 | 07 | 229 |
| BUF | 011 | 112 | 012 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:40NSHFilip ForsbergUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 10:54NSHYakov TreninGWGAssists: Colton Sissons, Cole Smith · Slap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 10:02BUFVictor OlofssonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.35 xG2–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 14:31BUFRasmus Dahlin: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:02NSHJeremy Lauzon: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P2 0:00NSHColton Sissons: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:00BUFPeyton Krebs: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Mittelstadt
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJankowski – McCarron – Tomasino8:31
xG 0.54–0.25 (69%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Sherwood – Parssinen – Evangelista9:24
xG 0.22–0.29 (44%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Nyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg13:00
xG 0.94–1.02 (48%)attempts 16–19goals 1–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Smith11:19
xG 0.10–0.80 (11%)attempts 9–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLauzon – Fabbro16:06
xG 1.47–0.79 (65%)attempts 16–20goals 0–0
- Schenn – Stastney14:31
xG 0.67–0.45 (60%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Josi17:53
xG 0.64–1.11 (36%)attempts 19–23goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestCozens – Peterka – Benson10:58
xG 1.10–0.22 (83%)attempts 22–7goals 0–1
- Olofsson – Biro – Rosen3:24
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Okposo – Krebs – Rosen5:38
xG 0.04–0.14 (23%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Jost – Biro5:17
xG 0.19–0.30 (39%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Dahlin10:54
xG 0.79–0.21 (79%)attempts 18–6goals 0–1
- Samuelsson – Dahlin8:23
xG 0.78–0.24 (76%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Samuelsson – Power5:34
xG 0.54–0.01 (98%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).