Mon, Dec 4, 2023·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Winnipeg Jets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 015 | 114 | 014 | 143 |
| WPG | 13 | 113 | 06 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:58WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 11:39WPGNikolaj EhlersGWGAssists: Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 19:09CARMartin NecasAssists: Stefan Noesen, Jalen Chatfield · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG1–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 3:33WPGMason Appleton: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:02CARMartin Necas: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:19WPGLogan Stanley: Cross checking2 min
- P3 6:15WPGDylan DeMelo: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Kotkaniemi – Svechnikov11:59
xG 1.06–0.34 (75%)attempts 25–8goals 0–0
- Noesen – Necas – Drury8:19
xG 0.30–0.03 (91%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Bunting4:02
xG 0.33–0.17 (67%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Martinook – Aho – Jarvis2:57
xG 0.02–0.07 (24%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Chatfield14:28
xG 0.48–0.07 (88%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Skjei – Pesce16:42
xG 0.83–0.80 (51%)attempts 24–16goals 0–1
- Burns – Slavin14:37
xG 0.46–0.55 (46%)attempts 20–12goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Ehlers – Connor13:17
xG 0.86–0.38 (69%)attempts 13–18goals 2–0
- Niederreiter – Barron – Gustafsson2:14
xG 0.04–0.09 (31%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Vilardi – Iafallo – Perfetti9:24
xG 0.12–0.21 (35%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton10:47
xG 0.01–0.32 (2%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey14:34
xG 0.83–0.40 (67%)attempts 12–19goals 0–1
- Samberg – Chisholm4:17
xG 0.15–0.13 (52%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Stanley – Samberg3:05
xG 0.00–0.04 (1%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).