Thu, Dec 7, 2023·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Nashville Predators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 18 | 014 | 011 | 133 |
| NSH | 18 | 210 | 212 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:32TBLAlex Barré-BouletAssists: Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli · Slap, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 17:14NSHJuuso ParssinenPPAssists: Philip Tomasino, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 2:37NSHFilip ForsbergPPGWGAssists: Roman Josi, Gustav Nyquist · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 4:32NSHRyan McDonaghUnassisted · Backhand, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 6:11NSHRoman JosiAssists: Cole Smith · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–4
- P3 13:13NSHYakov TreninENAssists: Kiefer Sherwood · Wrist, 0.75 xG1–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:31NSHMichael McCarron: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:30TBLSteven Stamkos: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 2:30TBLBrandon Hagel: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:08NSHKiefer Sherwood: Holding2 min
- P2 10:30NSHRoman Josi: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:54NSHFilip Forsberg: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:21TBLAlex Barré-Boulet: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:13NSHCole Smith: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:13TBLAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:00TBLAustin Watson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 0:00TBLAustin Watson: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paul won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestCirelli – Hagel – Barré-Boulet4:28
xG 0.56–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Kucherov – Cirelli – Hagel3:02
xG 0.38–0.07 (85%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Paul – Eyssimont – Jeannot9:30
xG 0.16–0.31 (34%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Watson – Glendening – Motte4:58
xG 0.14–0.35 (28%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCernak – Sergachev13:54
xG 0.63–0.37 (63%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- de Haan – Raddysh9:03
xG 0.39–0.20 (66%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
- de Haan – Cernak2:09
xG 0.10–0.08 (55%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestMcCarron – Sherwood – Tomasino8:33
xG 0.47–0.26 (64%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Smith6:56
xG 0.27–0.07 (79%)attempts 11–4goals 2–0
- Nyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg9:36
xG 0.68–0.68 (50%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Novak – Parssinen – Evangelista6:25
xG 0.09–0.35 (20%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Josi11:30
xG 0.96–0.66 (59%)attempts 21–14goals 2–0
- McDonagh – Lauzon2:04
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Josi – Fabbro2:17
xG 0.09–0.04 (68%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).