Thu, Dec 7, 2023·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Arizona Coyotes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 28 | 18 | 110 | 426 |
| ARI | 17 | 07 | 012 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:11PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 13:18PHIJoel FarabeeGWGAssists: Cam Atkinson, Cam York · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–0
- P1 17:33ARILawson CrouseAssists: Matias Maccelli, Jason Zucker · Slap, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 4:38PHITravis KonecnySHAssists: Scott Laughton, Nick Seeler · Wrist, 0.29 xG3–1
- P3 1:47PHICam YorkAssists: Travis Sanheim, Nicolas Deslauriers · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
Penalties (3)
- P1 15:30PHITravis Sanheim: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:30PHISean Couturier: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:31PHIOlle Lycksell: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Couturier – Farabee2:17
xG 0.23–0.03 (88%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Tippett – Frost – Lycksell3:04
xG 0.10–0.00 (99%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Couturier – Konecny – Foerster8:18
xG 0.31–0.22 (59%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Tippett – Frost – Brink4:25
xG 0.12–0.07 (65%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Zamula15:40
xG 0.55–0.15 (79%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Sanheim – York14:20
xG 0.70–0.67 (51%)attempts 14–16goals 3–0
- Seeler – Walker16:45
xG 0.57–0.73 (44%)attempts 13–26goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestZucker – Kerfoot – Carcone4:19
xG 0.36–0.11 (76%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – O'Brien – Kelemen3:09
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Schmaltz – Keller6:00
xG 0.18–0.20 (47%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli13:22
xG 0.43–0.54 (44%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumba – Brown5:45
xG 0.49–0.24 (67%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Dermott – Välimäki2:17
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Dumba – Dermott7:38
xG 0.23–0.20 (53%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).