Thu, Dec 7, 2023·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 211 | 010 | 09 | 230 |
| CGY | 07 | 09 | 311 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:10CARStefan NoesenAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Jack Drury · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 8:49CARMichael BuntingAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Martin Necas · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–0
- P3 5:42CGYRasmus AnderssonAssists: Blake Coleman, MacKenzie Weegar · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 7:03CGYConnor ZaryAssists: Adam Ruzicka, Nazem Kadri · Snap, 0.37 xG2–2
- P3 11:44CGYBlake ColemanSHGWGAssists: Yegor Sharangovich · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 6:33CARBrendan Lemieux: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:40CARMichael Bunting: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 7:41CARPyotr Kochetkov: Interference2 min
- P3 10:00CGYNoah Hanifin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Fast – Martinook10:49
xG 0.46–0.27 (63%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Aho – Necas – Jarvis2:23
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Bunting – Kotkaniemi – Jarvis8:50
xG 0.38–0.38 (50%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
- Noesen – Lemieux – Drury5:53
xG 0.13–0.32 (29%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Skjei – Pesce15:46
xG 0.46–0.50 (48%)attempts 20–10goals 0–0
- Burns – Slavin15:36
xG 0.35–0.62 (36%)attempts 16–17goals 1–0
- Orlov – Chatfield12:13
xG 0.51–1.04 (33%)attempts 15–15goals 1–2
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestBacklund – Coleman – Huberdeau10:32
xG 0.68–0.26 (73%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Kadri – Pospisil – Zary8:19
xG 0.52–0.25 (67%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Mangiapane – Sharangovich11:30
xG 0.39–0.35 (53%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Greer – Dube – Ruzicka3:43
xG 0.08–0.15 (33%)attempts 1–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTanev – Hanifin18:20
xG 0.84–0.14 (86%)attempts 22–13goals 0–0
- Weegar – Andersson17:31
xG 1.15–0.68 (63%)attempts 14–23goals 2–1
- Gilbert – Solovyov7:38
xG 0.14–0.17 (45%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).