Thu, Dec 7, 2023·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Minnesota Wild 0, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 012 | 04 | 010 | 026 |
| VAN | 14 | 010 | 13 | 217 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:05VANNils HoglanderGWGAssists: Brock Boeser, Tyler Myers · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P3 2:05VANTeddy BluegerAssists: Conor Garland, Dakota Joshua · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:15VANIan Cole: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:16MINJon Merrill: Elbowing2 min
- P2 14:23MINJake Middleton: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:23VANDakota Joshua: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:16MINFrederick Gaudreau: Holding2 min
- P3 19:48VANNikita Zadorov: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:48MINPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rossi won the faceoff against Miller
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHartman – Duhaime – Dewar5:45
xG 0.37–0.13 (74%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy10:28
xG 0.32–0.18 (64%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov2:07
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Kaprizov – Rossi11:47
xG 0.19–0.25 (43%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Middleton15:26
xG 0.56–0.11 (84%)attempts 21–5goals 0–0
- Brodin – Faber20:54
xG 0.41–0.50 (45%)attempts 23–15goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Merrill8:25
xG 0.16–0.84 (16%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBlueger – Joshua – Garland8:55
xG 0.79–0.06 (93%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Miller – Boeser – Hoglander13:06
xG 0.51–0.44 (53%)attempts 11–20goals 0–0
- Lafferty – Pettersson – Mikheyev12:02
xG 0.25–0.30 (46%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Di Giuseppe – Aman – Kuzmenko6:11
xG 0.09–0.37 (19%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Juulsen11:03
xG 0.54–0.31 (64%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Hronek – Hughes20:13
xG 0.61–0.62 (50%)attempts 16–25goals 0–0
- Myers – Zadorov12:40
xG 0.10–0.31 (24%)attempts 3–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).