Sat, Dec 9, 2023·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Montréal Canadiens 3, Buffalo Sabres 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 07 | 215 | 08 | 01 | 3 | 331 |
| BUF | 017 | 012 | 216 | 03 | 2 | 248 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 12:59MTLJayden StrubleAssists: Johnathan Kovacevic · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 13:13MTLNick SuzukiPPAssists: Mike Matheson, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
- P3 1:06BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Tage Thompson · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 6:36BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Connor Clifton · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. BUF Tage Thompson stopped
- 2. MTL Nick Suzuki stopped
- 3. BUF Victor Olofsson scored
- 4. MTL Cole Caufield scored
- 5. BUF Owen Power scored
- 6. MTL Jesse Ylonen scored
- 7. BUF JJ Peterka stopped
- 8. MTL Juraj Slafkovský scored
Penalties (12)
- P1 9:44MTLJohnathan Kovacevic: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:15MTLCayden Primeau: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:40MTLKaiden Guhle: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:02BUFMattias Samuelsson: Interference2 min
- P2 11:00MTLKaiden Guhle: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:00BUFEric Robinson: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P2 11:00BUFEric Robinson: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 17:13MTLGustav Lindstrom: Holding2 min
- P3 13:58BUFTage Thompson: Interference2 min
- P3 15:44MTLJuraj Slafkovský: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:44BUFConnor Clifton: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:54MTLChristian Dvorak: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Mittelstadt
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestArmia – Monahan – Evans2:28
xG 0.20–0.11 (64%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský12:03
xG 0.74–0.75 (50%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
- Armia – Stephens – Ylonen4:43
xG 0.08–0.34 (20%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Anderson – Monahan – Evans6:36
xG 0.44–0.80 (36%)attempts 5–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Kovacevic3:47
xG 0.06–0.01 (86%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Kovacevic – Struble8:14
xG 0.35–0.59 (37%)attempts 5–14goals 0–0
- Guhle – Barron11:41
xG 0.61–0.93 (40%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Thompson – Mittelstadt13:48
xG 1.20–0.38 (76%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Okposo – Robinson – Krebs3:07
xG 0.17–0.13 (57%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Jost – Rosen2:13
xG 0.04–0.02 (69%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Cozens – Peterka – Benson7:54
xG 0.38–0.44 (47%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Dahlin13:16
xG 1.08–0.47 (70%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Johnson – Clifton4:08
xG 0.66–0.13 (84%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Samuelsson – Power11:48
xG 0.55–0.62 (47%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).