Sat, Dec 9, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Nashville Predators 0, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 07 | 06 | 05 | 018 |
| TOR | 09 | 213 | 215 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 14:15TORDavid KampfGWGAssists: Conor Timmins · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–1
- P2 17:57TORAuston MatthewsAssists: William Nylander, Morgan Rielly · Backhand, 0.20 xG0–2
- P3 16:49TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: William Nylander, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–3
- P3 18:29TORNoah GregorENAssists: Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.73 xG0–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 11:57TORJake McCabe: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:15NSHFilip Forsberg: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:25NSHAlexandre Carrier: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:15NSHLuke Schenn: Interference2 min
- P2 18:05TORJohn Tavares: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:55NSHJeremy Lauzon: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:04TORJake McCabe: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:04NSHKiefer Sherwood: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 15:38NSHRyan McDonagh: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:28TORSimon Benoit: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestNyquist – O'Reilly – Forsberg9:27
xG 0.66–0.25 (72%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Smith5:42
xG 0.08–0.11 (43%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Glass – Tomasino – Parssinen6:07
xG 0.10–0.61 (14%)attempts 4–8goals 0–2
- Novak – Sherwood – Evangelista6:29
xG 0.00–0.55 (0%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Lauzon – Carrier9:57
xG 0.12–0.11 (51%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Schenn – Barrie9:19
xG 0.50–0.57 (47%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Josi13:14
xG 0.66–0.98 (40%)attempts 13–12goals 0–2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestNylander – Matthews – Knies11:48
xG 0.82–0.43 (66%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Domi – Robertson6:15
xG 0.45–0.07 (86%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Reaves – Gregor – Kampf6:01
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Tavares – Bertuzzi – Marner8:44
xG 0.55–0.50 (52%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLajoie – Timmins11:01
xG 0.83–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- McCabe – Benoit10:35
xG 0.87–0.10 (89%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Brodie – Rielly13:47
xG 0.70–0.89 (44%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).