Sat, Dec 9, 2023·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Seattle Kraken 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 214 | 09 | 16 | 11 | 430 |
| SEA | 04 | 215 | 17 | 03 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:28TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Nick Perbix, Tanner Jeannot · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 19:16TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Brayden Point, Brandon Hagel · Tip-in, 0.22 xG2–0
- P2 9:52SEAOliver BjorkstrandAssists: Eeli Tolvanen, Will Borgen · Snap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 12:23SEAJamie OleksiakAssists: Jordan Eberle · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 0:14SEAJared McCannPPAssists: Vince Dunn, Jordan Eberle · Slap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 7:09TBLNick PaulAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Nikita Kucherov · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–3
- OT 3:12TBLNikita KucherovGWGAssists: Brandon Hagel, Darren Raddysh · Wrist, 0.28 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:30SEARyker Evans: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:49TBLTanner Jeannot: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:03TBLNick Paul: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:49SEAVince Dunn: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:49TBLMichael Eyssimont: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:49SEABrandon Tanev: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:47TBLLuke Glendening: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:24TBLTanner Jeannot: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:44TBLAnthony Cirelli: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paul won the faceoff against Gourde
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Paul – Cirelli2:33
xG 0.16–0.04 (79%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Paul – Cirelli – Barré-Boulet11:09
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel9:44
xG 0.56–0.52 (52%)attempts 12–11goals 1–2
- Glendening – Motte – Koepke2:00
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFleury – Cernak2:55
xG 0.39–0.16 (71%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Sergachev – Perbix3:48
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- de Haan – Perbix5:13
xG 0.19–0.05 (79%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Kartye – Beniers10:44
xG 0.58–0.43 (57%)attempts 20–8goals 0–1
- Shore – Bellemare – Yamamoto3:00
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Wennberg – McCann – Tanev9:16
xG 0.27–0.35 (44%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen12:53
xG 0.19–0.28 (40%)attempts 6–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Evans3:24
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Borgen – Evans2:05
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Larsson – Dunn15:00
xG 0.68–0.64 (52%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).