Sat, Dec 9, 2023·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Vancouver Canucks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 07 | 27 | 110 | 324 |
| VAN | 113 | 28 | 13 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:17VANSam LaffertyAssists: Elias Pettersson, Ian Cole · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 6:54VANIlya MikheyevAssists: Elias Pettersson, Sam Lafferty · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 7:23CARJordan MartinookAssists: Jesper Fast, Jaccob Slavin · Snap, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 13:46VANJ.T. MillerAssists: Brock Boeser, Nils Hoglander · Snap, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 19:04CARBrady SkjeiPPAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Michael Bunting · Snap, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 2:10CARStefan NoesenAssists: Jack Drury, Brent Burns · Backhand, 0.25 xG3–3
- P3 3:29VANElias PetterssonGWGAssists: Ilya Mikheyev, Filip Hronek · Wrap-around, 0.06 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:48CARSebastian Aho: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:59CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:57VANFilip Hronek: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:22VANJ.T. Miller: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:36CARBrady Skjei: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:40VANConor Garland: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 7:33VANNils Hoglander: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:08VANConor Garland: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Blueger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNoesen – Necas – Drury3:50
xG 0.39–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Jarvis5:23
xG 0.19–0.02 (90%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Fast – Martinook – Aho4:43
xG 0.20–0.07 (74%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Fast – Martinook – Kotkaniemi4:53
xG 0.17–0.11 (60%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin12:01
xG 0.74–0.46 (61%)attempts 15–6goals 2–2
- Orlov – Chatfield9:37
xG 0.10–0.18 (36%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Skjei – Pesce14:14
xG 0.40–1.33 (23%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestDi Giuseppe – Aman – Kuzmenko4:42
xG 0.94–0.11 (89%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Lafferty – Pettersson – Mikheyev10:00
xG 0.50–0.37 (57%)attempts 7–12goals 3–0
- Blueger – Joshua – Garland8:12
xG 0.13–0.17 (44%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Miller – Boeser – Hoglander9:34
xG 0.36–0.66 (35%)attempts 4–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHronek – Hughes13:54
xG 1.24–0.62 (66%)attempts 14–19goals 3–1
- Myers – Zadorov11:47
xG 0.20–0.19 (52%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Cole – Juulsen10:06
xG 0.56–0.57 (50%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).