Thu, Dec 14, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Columbus Blue Jackets 6, Toronto Maple Leafs 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 211 | 315 | 07 | 12 | 635 |
| TOR | 010 | 015 | 521 | 02 | 548 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:19CBJPatrik LaineAssists: Kent Johnson · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P1 11:56CBJKent JohnsonAssists: Andrew Peeke · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–0
- P2 8:16CBJJustin DanforthAssists: Ivan Provorov, David Jiricek · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–0
- P2 10:45CBJEgor ChinakhovAssists: Ivan Provorov, David Jiricek · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–0
- P2 14:19CBJJohnny GaudreauPPAssists: Egor Chinakhov, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.08 xG5–0
- P3 0:38TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Auston Matthews, William Lagesson · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–1
- P3 3:49TORMitch MarnerAssists: John Tavares, Bobby McMann · Between legs, 0.05 xG5–2
- P3 14:21TORJake McCabePPAssists: Conor Timmins, Nick Robertson · Slap, 0.06 xG5–3
- P3 18:45TORAuston MatthewsAssists: William Nylander, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.05 xG5–4
- P3 19:15TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–5
- OT 3:26CBJKent JohnsonGWGAssists: Zach Werenski, Justin Danforth · Snap, 0.17 xG6–5
Penalties (6)
- P2 6:48TORWilliam Lagesson: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:48CBJCole Sillinger: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:04CBJAdam Fantilli: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:01TORWilliam Lagesson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 5:05TORWilliam Nylander: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:34CBJIvan Provorov: Boarding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fantilli won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestLaine – Johnson – Sillinger6:23
xG 0.49–0.32 (60%)attempts 5–7goals 2–0
- Bemstrom – Johnson – Sillinger3:18
xG 0.18–0.03 (84%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Texier – Bemstrom3:59
xG 0.17–0.27 (38%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Marchenko – Voronkov – Chinakhov12:27
xG 0.72–0.90 (45%)attempts 11–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestProvorov – Jiricek12:24
xG 1.16–0.74 (61%)attempts 12–19goals 1–1
- Provorov – Blankenburg2:01
xG 0.17–0.04 (80%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Provorov – Peeke2:47
xG 0.10–0.03 (77%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Nylander – Matthews6:32
xG 0.80–0.10 (89%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Domi – Gregor – Robertson4:14
xG 0.41–0.20 (67%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Tavares – Bertuzzi – Marner11:39
xG 0.70–0.52 (58%)attempts 22–11goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Kampf – McMann2:42
xG 0.24–0.07 (78%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTimmins – Benoit7:59
xG 0.71–0.61 (54%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- McCabe – Timmins5:09
xG 0.31–0.34 (48%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Brodie – Rielly15:39
xG 0.91–1.00 (48%)attempts 20–15goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).