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Ice Lab

Thu, Dec 14, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto

Columbus Blue Jackets 6, Toronto Maple Leafs 5 (OT)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 58% of the time.

TOR winsCBJ wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:36Shot by Fantilli, saved by Samsonov
  3. P1 1:24Shot by Lagesson, saved by Merzlikins
  4. P1 3:14Shot by Texier, saved by Samsonov
  5. P1 4:20Shot by Gregor, saved by Merzlikins
  6. P1 6:19Goal by Laine (Johnson)+15 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Jarnkrok, McCabe, Domi, Lagesson, Robertson · CBJ Werenski, Laine, Johnson, Sillinger, Blankenburg

  7. P1 7:16Shot by McMann, saved by Merzlikins
  8. P1 7:25Shot by Rielly, saved by Merzlikins
  9. P1 7:48Shot by Blankenburg, saved by Samsonov
  10. P1 7:49Shot by Fantilli, saved by Samsonov
  11. P1 8:14Shot by Marchenko, saved by Samsonov
  12. P1 9:35Shot by Danforth, saved by Samsonov
  13. P1 10:41Shot by Voronkov, saved by Samsonov
  14. P1 11:14Shot by Gaudreau, saved by Samsonov
  15. P1 11:56Goal by Johnson (Peeke)+15 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Rielly, Nylander, Matthews, Gregor · CBJ Laine, Peeke, Bean, Johnson, Sillinger

  16. P1 13:10Shot by Lagesson, saved by Merzlikins
  17. P1 13:24Shot by Blankenburg, saved by Samsonov
  18. P1 14:29Shot by Timmins, saved by Merzlikins
  19. P1 14:45Shot by Benoit, saved by Merzlikins
  20. P1 17:17Shot by Matthews, saved by Merzlikins
  21. P1 17:38Shot by Matthews, saved by Merzlikins
  22. P1 17:51Shot by Lagesson, saved by Merzlikins
  23. P1 0:00Period end
  24. P2 0:00Period start
  25. P2 2:39Shot by Domi, saved by Merzlikins
  26. P2 3:15Shot by McMann, saved by Merzlikins
  27. P2 5:05Shot by Tavares, saved by Merzlikins
  28. P2 5:11Shot by Rielly, saved by Merzlikins
  29. P2 5:12Shot by Tavares, saved by Merzlikins
  30. P2 5:38Shot by Marchenko, saved by Samsonov
  31. P2 6:48Lagesson: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Jarnkrok, McCabe, Lagesson, Gregor, Kampf · CBJ Provorov, Laine, Peeke, Johnson, Sillinger

  32. P2 6:48Sillinger: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Jarnkrok, McCabe, Lagesson, Gregor, Kampf · CBJ Provorov, Laine, Peeke, Johnson, Sillinger

  33. P2 8:16Goal by Danforth (Provorov, Jiricek)4v4+9 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tavares, McCabe, Marner, Timmins · CBJ Provorov, Danforth, Johnson, Jiricek

  34. P2 8:19Shot by Nylander, saved by Merzlikins4v4
  35. P2 8:29Shot by Nylander, saved by Merzlikins4v4
  36. P2 9:21Shot by Gaudreau, saved by Samsonov
  37. P2 9:39Shot by Jiricek, saved by Samsonov
  38. P2 10:19Shot by McMann, saved by Merzlikins
  39. P2 10:31Shot by Johnson, saved by Samsonov
  40. P2 10:45Goal by Chinakhov (Provorov, Jiricek)+4 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Matthews · CBJ Kuraly, Provorov, Texier, Chinakhov, Jiricek

  41. P2 10:59Shot by Fantilli, saved by Samsonov
  42. P2 11:04Fantilli: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TOR McCabe, Nylander, Marner, Matthews, Timmins · CBJ Gaudreau, Provorov, Danforth, Jiricek, Fantilli

  43. P2 11:07Shot by Rielly, saved by Merzlikins5v4
  44. P2 11:14Shot by Sillinger, saved by Samsonov5v4
  45. P2 12:13Shot by Kuraly, saved by Samsonov5v4
  46. P2 14:01Lagesson: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: TOR McCabe, Bertuzzi, Domi, Lagesson, Robertson · CBJ Werenski, Marchenko, Voronkov, Chinakhov, Blankenburg

  47. P2 14:04Shot by Chinakhov, saved by Samsonov4v5
  48. P2 14:19Goal by Gaudreau (Chinakhov, Werenski)4v5+1 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Brodie, McCabe, Marner, Kampf · CBJ Gaudreau, Werenski, Marchenko, Voronkov, Chinakhov

  49. P2 14:58Shot by Werenski, saved by Samsonov
  50. P2 14:59Shot by Bemstrom, saved by Samsonov
  51. P2 16:56Shot by Matthews, saved by Merzlikins
  52. P2 16:57Shot by Matthews, saved by Merzlikins
  53. P2 16:59Shot by Matthews, saved by Merzlikins
  54. P2 17:23Shot by Voronkov, saved by Samsonov
  55. P2 18:05Shot by Rielly, saved by Merzlikins
  56. P2 18:10Shot by Matthews, saved by Merzlikins
  57. P2 18:12Shot by Nylander, saved by Merzlikins
  58. P2 19:47Shot by Provorov, saved by Samsonov
  59. P2 0:00Period end
  60. P3 0:00Period start
  61. P3 0:31Shot by Nylander, saved by Merzlikins
  62. P3 0:38Goal by Nylander (Matthews, Lagesson)+1 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Jarnkrok, Nylander, Lagesson, Matthews · CBJ Gaudreau, Werenski, Danforth, Blankenburg, Fantilli

  63. P3 1:06Shot by Chinakhov, saved by Samsonov
  64. P3 1:22Shot by Bertuzzi, saved by Merzlikins
  65. P3 1:50Shot by Nylander, saved by Merzlikins
  66. P3 1:59Shot by Robertson, saved by Merzlikins
  67. P3 2:25Shot by Bean, saved by Samsonov
  68. P3 3:09Shot by Jarnkrok, saved by Merzlikins
  69. P3 3:49Goal by Marner (Tavares, McMann)+2 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Bertuzzi, Marner, Timmins, Benoit · CBJ Gaudreau, Kuraly, Provorov, Danforth, Jiricek

  70. P3 4:05Shot by Tavares, saved by Merzlikins
  71. P3 4:58Shot by Chinakhov, saved by Samsonov
  72. P3 5:05Nylander: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Jarnkrok, Rielly, Nylander, Matthews · CBJ Peeke, Bean, Marchenko, Voronkov, Chinakhov

  73. P3 5:13Shot by Chinakhov, saved by Samsonov4v5
  74. P3 5:31Shot by Marchenko, saved by Samsonov4v5
  75. P3 5:32Shot by Voronkov, saved by Samsonov4v5
  76. P3 7:45Shot by Domi, saved by Merzlikins
  77. P3 8:48Shot by Nylander, saved by Merzlikins
  78. P3 9:45Shot by Robertson, saved by Merzlikins
  79. P3 11:59Shot by Tavares, saved by Merzlikins
  80. P3 12:34Provorov: Boarding (2 min)6v5

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Tavares, Rielly, Bertuzzi, Marner, Matthews · CBJ Gaudreau, Provorov, Danforth, Jiricek, Fantilli

  81. P3 12:46Shot by Nylander, saved by Merzlikins5v4
  82. P3 12:54Shot by Nylander, saved by Merzlikins5v4
  83. P3 13:24Shot by Marner, saved by Merzlikins5v4
  84. P3 14:21Goal by McCabe (Timmins, Robertson)5v4+2 pts WP

    On ice: TOR McCabe, Bertuzzi, Domi, Timmins, Robertson · CBJ Werenski, Peeke, Danforth, Sillinger

  85. P3 14:41Shot by Robertson, saved by Merzlikins
  86. P3 16:05Shot by Sillinger, saved by Samsonov
  87. P3 17:45Shot by Marner, saved by Merzlikins6v5
  88. P3 18:45Goal by Matthews (Nylander, Marner)6v5+4 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Jarnkrok, Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Matthews · CBJ Kuraly, Provorov, Peeke, Marchenko, Chinakhov

  89. P3 19:15Goal by Matthews (Marner, Tavares)6v5+49 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Jarnkrok, Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Matthews · CBJ Gaudreau, Werenski, Danforth, Sillinger, Blankenburg

  90. P3 19:20Shot by Gregor, saved by Merzlikins
  91. P3 0:00Period end
  92. OT 0:00Period start
  93. OT 1:01Shot by Werenski, saved by Samsonov3v3
  94. OT 1:12Shot by Nylander, saved by Merzlikins3v3
  95. OT 1:31Shot by Matthews, saved by Merzlikins3v3
  96. OT 3:26Goal by Johnson (Werenski, Danforth)3v3+55 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Rielly, Domi, Nylander · CBJ Werenski, Danforth, Johnson

  97. OT 3:26Period end3v3
  98. OT 3:26Final4v4