Thu, Dec 14, 2023·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Ottawa Senators 2, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 06 | 115 | 113 | 234 |
| STL | 114 | 212 | 14 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:20STLRobert ThomasAssists: Justin Faulk, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 5:17STLRobert ThomasAssists: Justin Faulk, Torey Krug · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 8:42STLBrandon SaadGWGAssists: Nick Leddy, Kasperi Kapanen · Snap, 0.18 xG0–3
- P2 10:22OTTDominik KubalikAssists: Drake Batherson, Jakob Chychrun · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 7:07STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas · Snap, 0.24 xG1–4
- P3 18:26OTTMathieu JosephAssists: Ridly Greig, Jakob Chychrun · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:09OTTMark Kastelic: Interference2 min
- P1 19:41OTTBrady Tkachuk: Holding2 min
- P2 2:24OTTVladimir Tarasenko: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:52STLJordan Kyrou: Holding2 min
- P2 9:46STLTyler Tucker: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:46OTTBrady Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:06STLAlexey Toropchenko: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Thomas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Kubalik – Norris5:24
xG 0.65–0.18 (78%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Tarasenko – Tkachuk – Stützle4:41
xG 0.50–0.24 (67%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Joseph – Batherson – Greig5:09
xG 0.31–0.08 (80%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Giroux – Norris – Tkachuk6:15
xG 0.22–0.28 (44%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Chychrun7:06
xG 0.87–0.06 (94%)attempts 13–2goals 1–0
- Brannstrom – Zub9:24
xG 0.76–0.31 (71%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Bernard-Docker – Sanderson13:49
xG 0.22–0.64 (26%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Toropchenko – Neighbours11:13
xG 0.66–0.25 (72%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas13:04
xG 0.98–0.74 (57%)attempts 19–11goals 2–0
- Sundqvist – MacEachern – McGing6:17
xG 0.16–0.16 (49%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Schenn – Saad – Kapanen10:05
xG 0.48–0.60 (45%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Tucker6:38
xG 0.32–0.07 (81%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Faulk – Krug14:22
xG 1.15–1.10 (51%)attempts 19–19goals 1–1
- Leddy – Parayko20:16
xG 0.86–0.89 (49%)attempts 14–21goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).