Fri, Dec 15, 2023·UBS Arena, Elmont
Boston Bruins 5, New York Islanders 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 09 | 210 | 210 | 05 | 2 | 534 |
| NYI | 015 | 214 | 24 | 04 | 1 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:42NYIAlexander RomanovAssists: Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 13:26NYISimon HolmstromAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 14:45BOSMorgan GeekiePPAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 17:26BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Morgan Geekie · Snap, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 5:06NYIBo HorvatPPAssists: Brock Nelson, Mike Reilly · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 10:48BOSJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, David Pastrnak · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 12:01NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Bo Horvat, Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
- P3 16:51BOSMason LohreiUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–4
Shootout
- 1. NYI Bo Horvat stopped
- 2. BOS Jake DeBrusk stopped
- 3. NYI Mathew Barzal stopped
- 4. BOS Charlie Coyle scored
- 5. NYI Simon Holmstrom scored
- 6. BOS David Pastrnak scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 13:25BOSJesper Boqvist: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:32NYIJulien Gauthier: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:35NYIJulien Gauthier: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 3:15BOSKevin Shattenkirk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:39NYIAnders Lee: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:50BOSCharlie Coyle: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:42BOSDavid Pastrnak: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against Geekie
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Frederic – Steen2:10
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Marchand – Pastrnak – Geekie2:39
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Frederic – Boqvist3:39
xG 0.01–0.00 (69%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Marchand – Coyle – DeBrusk10:04
xG 0.23–0.43 (35%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWotherspoon – Lohrei7:31
xG 0.18–0.01 (94%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – Wotherspoon3:51
xG 0.21–0.05 (82%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Carlo – Wotherspoon2:28
xG 0.18–0.04 (83%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Horvat – Barzal10:59
xG 0.95–0.22 (81%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Engvall10:53
xG 0.75–0.18 (80%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Cizikas – Fasching8:35
xG 0.11–0.07 (62%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Pageau – Gauthier – Holmstrom9:30
xG 0.01–0.32 (2%)attempts 2–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Bolduc11:48
xG 0.94–0.18 (84%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Reilly – Aho15:16
xG 0.77–0.22 (78%)attempts 12–17goals 0–1
- Dobson – Romanov18:50
xG 0.67–0.51 (57%)attempts 19–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).