Fri, Dec 15, 2023·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Ottawa Senators 4, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 36 | 110 | 013 | 429 |
| DAL | 25 | 110 | 29 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:16OTTTravis HamonicAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Mathieu Joseph · Snap, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 2:51OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P1 11:46DALJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson · Snap, 0.29 xG2–1
- P1 13:20OTTJosh NorrisAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakob Chychrun · Snap, 0.50 xG3–1
- P1 13:30DALEsa LindellAssists: Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 4:54OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle · Snap, 0.24 xG4–2
- P2 11:21DALThomas HarleySHAssists: Radek Faksa · Wrist, 0.27 xG4–3
- P3 7:33DALMiro HeiskanenAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Evgenii Dadonov · Snap, 0.13 xG4–4
- P3 8:17DALMatt DucheneGWGAssists: Mason Marchment, Tyler Seguin · Backhand, 0.05 xG4–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:34DALWyatt Johnston: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:26OTTClaude Giroux: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:28DALJani Hakanpää: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:37OTTMathieu Joseph: Holding2 min
- P1 15:45OTTJakob Chychrun: Cross checking2 min
- P2 9:42DALSam Steel: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnston won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBatherson – Tkachuk – Stützle13:34
xG 0.54–0.24 (70%)attempts 21–9goals 1–0
- MacEwen – Kelly – Greig3:14
xG 0.09–0.01 (87%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Kelly – Greig3:12
xG 0.03–0.20 (13%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Giroux – Kubalik – Norris8:31
xG 0.21–0.43 (33%)attempts 4–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChychrun – Zub4:00
xG 0.23–0.17 (57%)attempts 7–2goals 1–1
- Sanderson – Zub13:46
xG 0.41–0.49 (46%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- Brannstrom – Bernard-Docker10:32
xG 0.47–0.63 (43%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson11:27
xG 0.53–0.16 (77%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Duchene – Seguin – Marchment11:19
xG 0.42–0.16 (72%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Smith – Faksa – Steel7:45
xG 0.06–0.18 (25%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
- Benn – Dadonov – Johnston10:42
xG 0.25–0.60 (30%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHanley – Harley8:49
xG 0.48–0.03 (94%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Heiskanen – Harley3:51
xG 0.18–0.11 (61%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Lindell – Heiskanen2:01
xG 0.10–0.07 (58%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).