Sat, Dec 16, 2023·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Dallas Stars 3, St. Louis Blues 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 29 | 06 | 18 | 00 | 323 |
| STL | 19 | 216 | 08 | 11 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:58DALMason MarchmentAssists: Tyler Seguin, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P1 6:47DALTy DellandreaAssists: Radek Faksa, Sam Steel · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P1 12:53STLBrandon SaadPPAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Kevin Hayes · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 1:36STLJordan KyrouAssists: Torey Krug, Robert Thomas · Snap, 0.18 xG2–2
- P2 16:46STLKevin HayesAssists: Alexey Toropchenko, Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 13:09DALEvgenii DadonovAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Thomas Harley · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–3
- OT 0:37STLColton ParaykoGWGAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Robert Thomas · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 6:47STLJordan Kyrou: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P1 11:41DALTy Dellandrea: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:54STLTorey Krug: Holding2 min
- P2 9:20STLBrayden Schenn: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Hayes
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSeguin – Hintz – Marchment4:11
xG 0.65–0.10 (87%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Pavelski – Benn – Johnston4:30
xG 0.20–0.06 (77%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Duchene – Robertson5:15
xG 0.12–0.16 (43%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson6:21
xG 0.24–0.28 (46%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHeiskanen – Harley7:18
xG 0.53–0.09 (85%)attempts 9–2goals 2–0
- Lindell – Lundkvist3:17
xG 0.56–0.17 (77%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Suter – Harley2:24
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas14:08
xG 0.80–0.28 (74%)attempts 20–9goals 1–0
- Hayes – Toropchenko – Neighbours11:06
xG 0.39–0.31 (55%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Sundqvist – MacEachern – McGing7:15
xG 0.10–0.28 (26%)attempts 1–11goals 0–1
- Schenn – Saad – Kapanen11:53
xG 0.42–0.93 (31%)attempts 13–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Parayko18:54
xG 0.93–0.52 (64%)attempts 22–19goals 0–1
- Faulk – Krug19:22
xG 1.05–1.04 (50%)attempts 25–18goals 2–1
- Scandella – Tucker11:28
xG 0.16–0.50 (25%)attempts 5–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).