Sun, Dec 17, 2023·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Washington Capitals 2, Carolina Hurricanes 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 07 | 18 | 05 | 01 | 1 | 221 |
| CAR | 07 | 18 | 013 | 01 | 0 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:41CARSebastian AhoAssists: Seth Jarvis · Snap, 0.24 xG0–1
- P2 11:33WSHMartin FehérváryAssists: Tom Wilson, Dylan Strome · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. CAR Sebastian Aho stopped
- 2. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov scored
- 3. CAR Teuvo Teravainen stopped
- 4. WSH John Carlson stopped
- 5. CAR Seth Jarvis stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:04WSHNic Dowd: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 15:20CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:29WSHDylan Strome: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:39CARTony DeAngelo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 19:20WSHConnor McMichael: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:35WSHTom Wilson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Wilson – Strome11:03
xG 0.93–0.19 (83%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Dowd – Kuznetsov – Aube-Kubel3:50
xG 0.06–0.07 (44%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Mantha – McMichael – Protas10:07
xG 0.14–0.23 (38%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Aube-Kubel – Strome2:11
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Sandin3:57
xG 0.22–0.11 (67%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Sandin6:41
xG 0.41–0.34 (55%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Jensen – Fehérváry2:30
xG 0.04–0.02 (69%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestNoesen – Aho – Jarvis9:58
xG 0.82–0.52 (61%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Teravainen – Necas – Kotkaniemi7:07
xG 0.35–0.17 (67%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Necas – Drury2:22
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Bunting – Necas – Drury3:46
xG 0.14–0.13 (52%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – Chatfield12:23
xG 0.98–0.10 (91%)attempts 18–5goals 1–0
- Slavin – DeAngelo3:05
xG 0.26–0.21 (56%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce14:09
xG 0.45–0.54 (46%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).