Tue, Dec 19, 2023·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Columbus Blue Jackets 9, Buffalo Sabres 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 314 | 413 | 27 | 934 |
| BUF | 14 | 114 | 211 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:30BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Dylan Cozens, Casey Mittelstadt · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 10:35CBJJohnny GaudreauAssists: Adam Fantilli · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 14:40CBJAdam FantilliAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Ivan Provorov · Snap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P1 19:48CBJKirill MarchenkoPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Zach Werenski · Between legs, 0.13 xG3–1
- P2 7:37CBJKirill MarchenkoAssists: Egor Chinakhov, Andrew Peeke · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–1
- P2 7:55CBJKirill MarchenkoGWGAssists: Egor Chinakhov, Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–1
- P2 8:52CBJErik GudbransonAssists: Alexandre Texier, Sean Kuraly · Wrist, 0.10 xG6–1
- P2 12:27CBJSean KuralyAssists: Alexandre Texier, Brendan Gaunce · Tip-in, 0.13 xG7–1
- P2 18:54BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Victor Olofsson · Wrist, 0.07 xG7–2
- P3 2:57BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Alex Tuch · Slap, 0.05 xG7–3
- P3 7:51BUFDylan CozensAssists: Zach Benson, JJ Peterka · Wrist, 0.04 xG7–4
- P3 8:30CBJCole SillingerAssists: Zach Werenski, Kent Johnson · Tip-in, 0.13 xG8–4
- P3 10:59CBJKent JohnsonAssists: Cole Sillinger, Emil Bemstrom · Slap, 0.29 xG9–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 19:03BUFPeyton Krebs: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:44BUFKyle Okposo: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:25CBJJake Bean: Interference2 min
- P3 1:55CBJAndrew Peeke: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 14:03CBJDmitri Voronkov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Voronkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestBemstrom – Johnson – Sillinger11:02
xG 1.33–0.04 (97%)attempts 14–3goals 2–0
- Gaudreau – Danforth – Fantilli11:28
xG 0.62–0.43 (59%)attempts 13–14goals 2–2
- Marchenko – Voronkov – Chinakhov11:46
xG 0.22–0.42 (35%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
- Kuraly – Gaunce – Texier11:54
xG 0.76–0.96 (44%)attempts 11–15goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Bean12:18
xG 1.07–0.22 (83%)attempts 16–8goals 2–1
- Werenski – Blankenburg16:31
xG 1.30–1.07 (55%)attempts 17–25goals 3–1
- Provorov – Peeke16:13
xG 0.30–0.62 (32%)attempts 14–13goals 2–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestCozens – Peterka – Benson4:45
xG 0.47–0.19 (71%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Mittelstadt – Cozens – Peterka6:46
xG 0.31–0.22 (59%)attempts 5–10goals 1–1
- Okposo – Robinson – Krebs7:09
xG 0.44–0.36 (55%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Tuch – Thompson – Benson7:07
xG 0.34–0.43 (44%)attempts 9–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Samuelsson – Dahlin17:29
xG 0.62–0.62 (50%)attempts 19–15goals 1–2
- Johnson – Clifton13:26
xG 0.34–0.86 (29%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Jokiharju – Power14:17
xG 0.65–1.31 (33%)attempts 18–18goals 1–5
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).