Tue, Dec 19, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
New York Rangers 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 011 | 214 | 311 | 536 |
| TOR | 05 | 117 | 111 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:11NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Blake Wheeler, Chris Kreider · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 7:32TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Morgan Rielly, Tyler Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 9:50NYRAlexis LafrenièrePPAssists: Jonny Brodzinski, Erik Gustafsson · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 1:16TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Jake McCabe, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 8:08NYRBraden SchneiderGWGAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 15:08NYRArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 16:47NYRMika ZibanejadENAssists: Ryan Lindgren, Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.67 xG5–2
Penalties (2)
- P2 7:59TORWilliam Lagesson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 13:42TORDavid Kampf: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goodrow won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière14:19
xG 0.69–0.13 (84%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Bonino – Brodzinski – Cuylle8:38
xG 0.24–0.18 (57%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Goodrow – Vesey11:58
xG 0.35–0.54 (39%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Kreider – Zibanejad8:54
xG 0.30–0.50 (38%)attempts 10–9goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestGustafsson – Schneider12:28
xG 0.91–0.26 (78%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- Fox – Lindgren17:38
xG 0.39–0.72 (35%)attempts 14–22goals 0–2
- Trouba – Miller21:04
xG 0.28–1.03 (21%)attempts 15–27goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Bertuzzi – Marner14:03
xG 0.76–0.14 (84%)attempts 19–12goals 0–1
- Nylander – Matthews – Knies12:12
xG 0.58–0.20 (74%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Gregor – Kampf – McMann6:22
xG 0.12–0.17 (41%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Jarnkrok – Domi – Robertson7:04
xG 0.17–0.22 (42%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – McCabe7:37
xG 0.47–0.20 (71%)attempts 11–6goals 1–2
- McCabe – Liljegren8:18
xG 0.42–0.18 (70%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Lagesson – Timmins14:25
xG 0.33–0.31 (51%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).