Thu, Dec 21, 2023·Ball Arena, Denver
Ottawa Senators 4, Colorado Avalanche 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 29 | 221 | 015 | 445 |
| COL | 220 | 112 | 37 | 639 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:43COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Cale Makar · Slap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 15:13OTTJosh NorrisPPAssists: Drake Batherson, Tim Stützle · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 15:28OTTRidly GreigAssists: Dominik Kubalik, Jakob Chychrun · Deflected, 0.08 xG2–1
- P1 18:28COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Valeri Nichushkin · Snap, 0.23 xG2–2
- P2 1:32OTTJacob Bernard-DockerAssists: Jiri Smejkal, Mark Kastelic · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P2 14:47OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Artem Zub · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–2
- P2 19:43COLMikko RantanenPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–3
- P3 6:16COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Devon Toews, Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–4
- P3 7:10COLMikko RantanenPPGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Tip-in, 0.06 xG4–5
- P3 19:37COLNathan MacKinnonENAssists: Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.68 xG4–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:04OTTAngus Crookshank: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:34COLSam Malinski: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 6:41COLJoel Kiviranta: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:30OTTRidly Greig: Interference2 min
- P2 15:14COLJack Johnson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:18OTTParker Kelly: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 4:49OTTDrake Batherson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 6:16OTTBrady Tkachuk: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min · PPG
- P3 8:32COLJosh Manson: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:28COLSam Malinski: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:55COLJosh Manson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Colton won the faceoff against Norris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTarasenko – Batherson – Stützle9:39
xG 0.67–0.59 (53%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Kastelic – Kelly – Smejkal3:46
xG 0.03–0.09 (26%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Kubalik – Crookshank – Greig5:35
xG 0.04–0.24 (14%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Giroux – Norris – Tkachuk7:25
xG 0.14–0.43 (24%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrannstrom – Bernard-Docker10:17
xG 0.67–0.21 (76%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Chychrun – Zub3:02
xG 0.42–0.17 (72%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Chychrun12:14
xG 0.35–0.42 (45%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen12:55
xG 1.26–0.48 (72%)attempts 19–12goals 1–1
- Wood – Drouin – Colton6:25
xG 0.37–0.05 (88%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- MacDermid – Olofsson – Kiviranta2:53
xG 0.22–0.01 (97%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Johansen – O'Connor – Meyers5:02
xG 0.15–0.19 (43%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar12:44
xG 1.42–0.49 (74%)attempts 20–21goals 1–2
- Manson – Byram9:59
xG 0.22–0.16 (59%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Byram – Malinski3:08
xG 0.15–0.15 (50%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).