Thu, Dec 21, 2023·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Arizona Coyotes 5, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 07 | 38 | 215 | 530 |
| SJS | 012 | 18 | 111 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:58ARIMichael KesselringAssists: Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 6:20SJSAnthony DuclairAssists: Fabian Zetterlund · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 8:30ARIClayton KellerAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Sean Durzi · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 12:56ARIAlexander KerfootGWGAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Sean Durzi · Deflected, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 0:26SJSFilip ZadinaAssists: Mario Ferraro, William Eklund · Poke, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 7:45ARINick SchmaltzPPAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–2
- P3 12:50ARILawson CrouseAssists: Matias Maccelli, Nick Bjugstad · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–2
Penalties (4)
- P2 10:13ARILiam O'Brien: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:53SJSMikael Granlund: Holding2 min
- P3 6:44SJSNikita Okhotiuk: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 13:29SJSFabian Zetterlund: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestZucker – O'Brien – Cooley8:52
xG 0.66–0.20 (77%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli11:13
xG 0.43–0.32 (58%)attempts 9–16goals 1–1
- Sanford – Carcone – McBain8:00
xG 0.61–0.61 (50%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Schmaltz – Keller12:52
xG 0.57–0.66 (46%)attempts 13–13goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestDermott – Stecher7:39
xG 0.55–0.36 (60%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Durzi – Kesselring7:40
xG 0.30–0.24 (56%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Dermott – Kesselring7:23
xG 0.34–0.32 (51%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHertl – Zadina – Eklund12:06
xG 1.06–0.45 (70%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- Hoffman – Labanc – Kunin8:05
xG 0.66–0.23 (74%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Granlund – Duclair – Zetterlund9:20
xG 0.46–0.37 (55%)attempts 11–6goals 1–2
- Bailey – Smith – Studnicka3:51
xG 0.08–0.38 (17%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRutta – Thrun12:31
xG 0.62–0.15 (80%)attempts 13–4goals 0–1
- Burroughs – Ferraro15:12
xG 1.23–1.14 (52%)attempts 21–21goals 2–0
- Rutta – Okhotiuk2:20
xG 0.01–0.12 (7%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).