Fri, Dec 22, 2023·Madison Square Garden, New York
Edmonton Oilers 4, New York Rangers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 07 | 011 | 410 | 428 |
| NYR | 18 | 014 | 212 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:03NYRBlake WheelerAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider · Snap, 0.14 xG0–1
- P3 3:07EDMZach HymanAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Connor McDavid · Backhand, 0.22 xG1–1
- P3 4:17EDMEvander KaneAssists: Derek Ryan · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 6:36EDMWarren FoegeleAssists: Ryan McLeod, Cody Ceci · Snap, 0.18 xG3–1
- P3 9:52EDMRyan McLeodGWGAssists: Warren Foegele · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–1
- P3 15:42NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Chris Kreider · Poke, 0.24 xG4–2
- P3 19:59NYRWill CuylleUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 19:39EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 5:56EDMEvan Bouchard: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:15NYRRyan Lindgren: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:01NYRNick Bonino: Holding2 min
- P3 14:07EDMWarren Foegele: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestDraisaitl – Foegele – McLeod11:02
xG 0.99–0.30 (77%)attempts 14–10goals 2–0
- Kane – Janmark – Ryan6:40
xG 0.44–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid13:34
xG 0.51–0.65 (44%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Brown – Erne – Hamblin5:48
xG 0.00–0.33 (0%)attempts 0–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard15:50
xG 1.29–0.70 (65%)attempts 19–16goals 3–1
- Ceci – Nurse16:03
xG 0.81–0.51 (61%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
- Kulak – Desharnais9:09
xG 0.16–0.18 (47%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Kreider – Zibanejad8:45
xG 0.40–0.34 (54%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Pitlick – Goodrow – Vesey8:20
xG 0.40–0.37 (52%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Bonino – Brodzinski – Cuylle8:18
xG 0.05–0.31 (14%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière12:21
xG 0.35–0.62 (36%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gustafsson – Schneider14:46
xG 0.38–0.54 (41%)attempts 20–10goals 0–1
- Trouba – Miller15:33
xG 0.73–0.98 (43%)attempts 15–17goals 1–2
- Fox – Lindgren12:35
xG 0.34–0.79 (30%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).