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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 23, 2023·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise

Vegas Golden Knights 2, Florida Panthers 4

Away

Vegas Golden Knights

2

Final

Home

Florida Panthers

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 75% of the time.

FLA winsVGK wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
VGK0321309225
FLA02021428442

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 1:21VGKMark StoneAssists: Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
  2. P2 8:58FLASam BennettAssists: Carter Verhaeghe, Brandon Montour · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
  3. P2 15:16FLAGustav ForslingAssists: Aleksander Barkov · Slap, 0.01 xG1–2
  4. P2 19:37VGKPavel DorofeyevAssists: Ben Hutton, Keegan Kolesar · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
  5. P3 6:10FLACarter VerhaeghePPGWGAssists: Brandon Montour, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
  6. P3 8:09FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk · Snap, 0.13 xG2–4
Penalties (17)
  1. P1 7:32VGKBrayden McNabb: Tripping2 min
  2. P1 11:55VGKKeegan Kolesar: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 11:55FLARyan Lomberg: Fighting5 min
  4. P1 12:10VGKNicolas Roy: High sticking2 min
  5. P2 2:25VGKMichael Amadio: Too many men on the ice2 min
  6. P2 4:28FLAEvan Rodrigues: Holding2 min
  7. P3 3:31FLASam Bennett: Holding the stick2 min
  8. P3 5:53VGKBen Hutton: Interference2 min · PPG
  9. P3 7:33VGKZach Whitecloud: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  10. P3 10:09VGKPaul Cotter: Roughing2 min
  11. P3 0:00VGKAlex Pietrangelo: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 0:00FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 0:00FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Misconduct10 min
  14. P3 0:00VGKWilliam Karlsson: Misconduct10 min
  15. P3 0:00FLASam Bennett: Misconduct10 min
  16. P3 0:00FLAAaron Ekblad: Game misconduct10 min
  17. P3 0:00VGKAlex Pietrangelo: Misconduct10 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

VGK00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0FLA
46% to win54% to win
← VGK attackFLA attack →
  1. P1 20:00Howden won the faceoff against Bennett
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

VGKFLA
25Shots on goal42
2.2Expected goals3.7
44Shot attempts81
31Faceoffs won34
2Power plays6
39Penalty minutes41
25Hits39
21Blocked shots11
6Giveaways11
4Takeaways9

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Vegas Golden Knights

Forward lines

  1. bestKarlsson – Amadio – Cotter5:21

    xG 0.64–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0

  2. Marchessault – Stephenson – Dorofeyev10:11

    xG 0.17–0.28 (39%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1

  3. Stone – Barbashev – Eichel11:27

    xG 0.23–0.45 (34%)attempts 7–18goals 1–1

  4. Kolesar – Roy – Howden4:23

    xG 0.09–0.63 (13%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. McNabb – Hutton12:53

    xG 0.22–0.31 (41%)attempts 3–9goals 0–2

  2. Martinez – Pietrangelo13:39

    xG 0.64–0.77 (46%)attempts 9–25goals 1–0

  3. Hague – Whitecloud14:05

    xG 0.28–0.82 (25%)attempts 11–23goals 0–0

Florida Panthers

Forward lines

  1. bestBarkov – Reinhart – Rodrigues10:16

    xG 0.64–0.12 (84%)attempts 20–4goals 1–1

  2. Verhaeghe – Bennett – Tkachuk10:22

    xG 0.36–0.06 (85%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0

  3. Stenlund – Lomberg – Lockwood4:45

    xG 0.09–0.01 (93%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0

  4. Cousins – Luostarinen – Lundell9:37

    xG 0.56–0.85 (40%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestEkblad – Forsling11:18

    xG 0.86–0.19 (82%)attempts 22–7goals 1–1

  2. Ekman-Larsson – Kulikov10:24

    xG 0.25–0.17 (59%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0

  3. Montour – Mikkola12:30

    xG 0.46–0.71 (39%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

FLA 3.7 xGVGK 2.2 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

FLAVGK

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.

Excitement 55/100 · #640 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.65 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 32% (winner's lowest chance)
VGK 100%5050%50FLA 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +24 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 75% of the time.

FLA winsVGK wins

Simulated goal difference (FLA − VGK), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).