Sat, Dec 23, 2023·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Ottawa Senators 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 17 | 14 | 223 | 00 | 434 |
| OTT | 210 | 211 | 04 | 11 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:07OTTJakob ChychrunAssists: Claude Giroux, Josh Norris · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 14:31PITLars EllerPPAssists: Reilly Smith, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 15:01OTTJosh NorrisAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Erik Brannstrom · Bat, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 2:10OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakob Chychrun · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 4:59PITRickard RakellAssists: Sidney Crosby, Reilly Smith · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–3
- P2 7:30OTTErik BrannstromAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Jake Sanderson · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 1:51PITDrew O'ConnorAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Kris Letang · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 17:34PITKris LetangAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–4
- OT 1:10OTTTim StützleGWGAssists: Drake Batherson · Wrist, 0.27 xG4–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:03OTTRidly Greig: Interference2 min
- P1 2:25OTTBrady Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 8:04PITJohn Ludvig: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:55OTTJake Sanderson: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 18:00PITRyan Graves: Holding2 min
- P1 19:36OTTClaude Giroux: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:34PITJohn Ludvig: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:18OTTErik Brannstrom: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:30PITJansen Harkins: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 15:12OTTErik Brannstrom: Interference2 min
- P3 12:37OTTTravis Hamonic: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Norris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rakell – Guentzel11:43
xG 0.95–0.21 (82%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Carter – Harkins – Acciari4:10
xG 0.42–0.13 (76%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Eller – Smith – Puustinen4:35
xG 0.30–0.06 (84%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Malkin – O'Connor – Zohorna4:36
xG 0.17–0.01 (95%)attempts 7–2goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Graves12:02
xG 0.72–0.06 (92%)attempts 23–6goals 0–0
- Ruhwedel – Ludvig5:26
xG 0.15–0.14 (53%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Letang – Pettersson16:19
xG 0.75–0.81 (48%)attempts 17–16goals 2–2
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Kubalik – Crookshank – Greig3:13
xG 0.19–0.19 (51%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Kastelic – Kelly – Smejkal3:06
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Kubalik – Kelly – Greig2:26
xG 0.02–0.04 (33%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Giroux – Norris – Tkachuk9:12
xG 0.71–0.86 (45%)attempts 9–15goals 3–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrannstrom – Bernard-Docker8:22
xG 0.41–0.24 (62%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
- Hamonic – Chychrun14:10
xG 0.49–0.84 (37%)attempts 10–17goals 2–0
- Sanderson – Zub11:38
xG 0.36–0.85 (30%)attempts 10–21goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).