Sat, Dec 23, 2023·Capital One Arena, Washington
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Washington Capitals 1 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 111 | 05 | 02 | 02 | 2 | 220 |
| WSH | 013 | 110 | 06 | 05 | 1 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:29TBLLuke GlendeningAssists: Victor Hedman · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 2:01WSHAnthony ManthaAssists: Nick Jensen, Aliaksei Protas · Deflected, 0.05 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov scored
- 2. TBL Steven Stamkos stopped
- 3. WSH Dylan Strome stopped
- 4. TBL Brayden Point scored
- 5. WSH Alex Ovechkin stopped
- 6. TBL Nikita Kucherov stopped
- 7. WSH Connor McMichael stopped
- 8. TBL Victor Hedman scored
Penalties (3)
- P1 4:57WSHConnor McMichael: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:07TBLSteven Stamkos: Interference2 min
- P1 16:47WSHNicolas Aube-Kubel: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestGlendening – Sheary – Jeannot4:00
xG 0.20–0.01 (94%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Cirelli – Hagel15:00
xG 0.65–0.47 (58%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Motte – Eyssimont – Barré-Boulet2:40
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Glendening – Eyssimont – Jeannot4:18
xG 0.02–0.05 (30%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Perbix16:42
xG 0.76–0.52 (59%)attempts 16–19goals 0–0
- Hedman – Cernak2:24
xG 0.12–0.02 (83%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- de Haan – Raddysh12:26
xG 0.71–0.62 (53%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Wilson – Strome13:54
xG 0.82–0.36 (70%)attempts 20–11goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Lapierre – Miroshnichenko6:05
xG 0.11–0.16 (41%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Dowd – Aube-Kubel – Malenstyn10:35
xG 0.20–0.29 (41%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Mantha – McMichael – Protas9:53
xG 0.32–0.61 (34%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Fehérváry16:05
xG 1.04–0.65 (62%)attempts 20–13goals 0–0
- Jensen – Sandin3:10
xG 0.19–0.05 (81%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Jensen – Edmundson12:09
xG 0.28–0.39 (42%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).