Sat, Dec 23, 2023·Madison Square Garden, New York
Buffalo Sabres 3, New York Rangers 4 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 19 | 111 | 17 | 03 | 330 |
| NYR | 213 | 110 | 09 | 11 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:19NYRRyan LindgrenAssists: Jonny Brodzinski, Nick Bonino · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 15:35NYRArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad · Snap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P1 16:37BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Jordan Greenway · Slap, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 1:42BUFJack QuinnAssists: Dylan Cozens, JJ Peterka · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 7:13NYRMika ZibanejadAssists: Chris Kreider, Blake Wheeler · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 6:50BUFCasey MittelstadtAssists: Jordan Greenway · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–3
- OT 2:28NYRChris KreiderGWGAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Adam Fox · Snap, 0.40 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 14:18BUFJordan Greenway: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 12:48BUFErik Johnson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 12:48NYRWill Cuylle: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:48BUFErik Johnson: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:48BUFErik Johnson: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 12:48BUFJeff Skinner: Misconduct10 min
- P3 11:32BUFJeff Skinner: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:09NYRBarclay Goodrow: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:46BUFRasmus Dahlin: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Goodrow
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Tuch – Thompson9:19
xG 0.70–0.31 (69%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Greenway – Mittelstadt – Benson9:14
xG 0.67–0.31 (69%)attempts 7–11goals 2–0
- Okposo – Olofsson – Krebs6:45
xG 0.28–0.15 (65%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Tuch – Thompson – Quinn2:12
xG 0.02–0.01 (72%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Power5:09
xG 0.60–0.09 (87%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Dahlin – Johnson4:21
xG 0.41–0.14 (74%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Samuelsson – Dahlin13:56
xG 0.64–0.49 (57%)attempts 12–17goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière11:46
xG 0.59–0.42 (59%)attempts 20–10goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Goodrow – Vesey9:16
xG 0.18–0.31 (37%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Bonino – Brodzinski – Cuylle7:53
xG 0.17–0.38 (31%)attempts 8–10goals 1–2
- Wheeler – Kreider – Zibanejad12:38
xG 0.36–0.64 (36%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestFox – Lindgren18:12
xG 0.58–0.33 (64%)attempts 17–13goals 2–0
- Trouba – Miller18:57
xG 0.67–0.77 (46%)attempts 20–18goals 0–0
- Gustafsson – Schneider9:56
xG 0.12–1.16 (9%)attempts 9–17goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).