Sat, Dec 23, 2023·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Chicago Blackhawks 5, St. Louis Blues 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 28 | 210 | 12 | 520 |
| STL | 111 | 19 | 522 | 742 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:04STLRobert ThomasAssists: Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 3:49CHIConnor BedardAssists: Philipp Kurashev, Isaak Phillips · Cradle, 0.36 xG1–1
- P1 4:12CHIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Jarred Tinordi, Taylor Raddysh · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 0:20CHINick FolignoPPAssists: Philipp Kurashev, Taylor Raddysh · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–1
- P2 13:29STLColton ParaykoAssists: Sammy Blais, Mackenzie MacEachern · Slap, 0.01 xG3–2
- P2 15:54CHIJason DickinsonAssists: Taylor Raddysh, Jarred Tinordi · Tip-in, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 5:16CHINick FolignoSHAssists: Jarred Tinordi · Backhand, 0.20 xG5–2
- P3 7:53STLBrandon SaadPPAssists: Kevin Hayes, Scott Perunovich · Tip-in, 0.04 xG5–3
- P3 10:43STLJake NeighboursPPAssists: Justin Faulk, Kevin Hayes · Deflected, 0.13 xG5–4
- P3 11:06STLJordan KyrouAssists: Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–5
- P3 17:53STLJustin FaulkGWGAssists: Torey Krug · Wrist, 0.01 xG5–6
- P3 18:59STLJordan KyrouENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.78 xG5–7
Penalties (6)
- P1 15:28CHIJarred Tinordi: Interference2 min
- P1 18:49STLRobert Thomas: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:17STLJustin Faulk: Holding2 min
- P3 4:36CHILouis Crevier: Holding2 min
- P3 6:04CHIConnor Murphy: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:13CHIJarred Tinordi: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against Bedard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestGuttman – Johnson – Reichel5:58
xG 0.20–0.00 (99%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Dickinson – Beauvillier – Raddysh11:36
xG 0.43–0.31 (58%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Foligno – Kurashev – Bedard10:47
xG 0.20–0.42 (32%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
- Blackwell – Donato – Entwistle9:34
xG 0.11–0.79 (13%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTinordi – Crevier12:20
xG 0.73–0.35 (68%)attempts 10–12goals 3–2
- Crevier – Korchinski2:37
xG 0.01–0.03 (35%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Zaitsev – Korchinski12:23
xG 0.46–0.56 (45%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas15:22
xG 1.28–0.76 (63%)attempts 27–7goals 2–2
- Hayes – Saad – Toropchenko8:04
xG 0.55–0.41 (57%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
- Sundqvist – MacEachern – Blais6:35
xG 0.03–0.09 (25%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Schenn – Kapanen – Neighbours10:37
xG 0.30–0.40 (43%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Parayko18:02
xG 1.22–0.37 (77%)attempts 23–14goals 2–1
- Scandella – Perunovich10:49
xG 0.22–0.23 (49%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Faulk – Krug14:01
xG 0.63–0.83 (43%)attempts 14–10goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).