Sat, Dec 23, 2023·Ball Arena, Denver
Arizona Coyotes 1, Colorado Avalanche 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 012 | 05 | 18 | 125 |
| COL | 18 | 311 | 07 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:37COLBowen ByramAssists: Ross Colton · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 1:27COLValeri NichushkinGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Devon Toews · Snap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 13:29COLJosh MansonAssists: Fredrik Olofsson, Logan O'Connor · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 19:52COLFredrik OlofssonAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Logan O'Connor · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–4
- P3 16:56ARIAlexander KerfootPPAssists: Michael Carcone, Sean Durzi · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:31ARIClayton Keller: High sticking2 min
- P1 12:55COLNathan MacKinnon: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:52ARILawson Crouse: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:52COLMiles Wood: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:44ARIMichael Kesselring: Holding2 min
- P3 7:12COLValeri Nichushkin: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:48COLMiles Wood: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Colton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSanford – Carcone – McBain8:55
xG 0.38–0.05 (89%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Zucker – O'Brien – Cooley10:31
xG 0.33–0.36 (47%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Kerfoot – Schmaltz – Keller11:36
xG 0.10–0.30 (25%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli10:09
xG 0.27–0.50 (35%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumba – Moser5:55
xG 0.17–0.11 (61%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Dermott – Kesselring5:16
xG 0.29–0.24 (55%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Dermott – Stecher8:22
xG 0.29–0.24 (54%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen14:43
xG 0.64–0.49 (57%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Cogliano – Johansen – O'Connor6:59
xG 0.07–0.08 (44%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Wood – Drouin – Colton8:32
xG 0.14–0.16 (46%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- MacDermid – Olofsson – Kiviranta3:58
xG 0.00–0.30 (0%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Manson2:07
xG 0.24–0.01 (98%)attempts 2–1goals 2–0
- Johnson – Malinski9:43
xG 0.37–0.35 (51%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Toews – Byram3:41
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).