Wed, Dec 27, 2023·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Boston Bruins 4, Buffalo Sabres 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 27 | 213 | 05 | 425 |
| BUF | 08 | 010 | 18 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:19BOSMason LohreiAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Trent Frederic · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 13:42BOSCharlie CoylePPGWGAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.32 xG2–0
- P2 4:18BOSCharlie CoylePPAssists: Jake DeBrusk, David Pastrnak · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–0
- P2 13:44BOSMorgan GeekiePPAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–0
- P3 5:11BUFErik JohnsonAssists: Owen Power, Casey Mittelstadt · Slap, 0.03 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:31BOSBrad Marchand: Cross checking2 min
- P1 7:31BOSBrad Marchand: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 12:28BUFPeyton Krebs: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:07BUFJeff Skinner: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:57BUFTyson Jost: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:27BOSTrent Frederic: Holding2 min
- P2 14:50BUFCasey Mittelstadt: Elbowing2 min
- P2 15:18BOSCharlie McAvoy: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:45BOSBrandon Carlo: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:07BOSDanton Heinen: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 19:27BUFJack Quinn: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Mittelstadt won the faceoff against Coyle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Heinen – Frederic9:45
xG 0.71–0.48 (60%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Marchand – Coyle – DeBrusk10:27
xG 0.38–0.17 (69%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Pastrnak – Zacha – Geekie9:08
xG 0.23–0.13 (64%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Brown – Lauko – Beecher6:00
xG 0.08–0.38 (17%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Carlo12:55
xG 0.57–0.08 (88%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Wotherspoon10:12
xG 0.52–0.36 (59%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- McAvoy – Lohrei14:14
xG 0.28–0.77 (26%)attempts 8–20goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Tuch – Mittelstadt4:38
xG 0.35–0.23 (61%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Cozens – Quinn – Peterka9:42
xG 0.43–0.35 (56%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Jost2:53
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Okposo – Olofsson – Krebs6:06
xG 0.10–0.18 (36%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Power3:44
xG 0.24–0.08 (74%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Samuelsson – Dahlin12:32
xG 0.62–0.51 (55%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Clifton – Johnson2:43
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).