Fri, Dec 29, 2023·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 6 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 214 | 312 | 07 | 00 | 533 |
| CBJ | 14 | 37 | 18 | 12 | 621 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:14TORMitch MarnerAssists: Morgan Rielly · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 11:17CBJCole SillingerAssists: Jake Bean · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 12:55TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 1:35TORNick RobertsonAssists: Timothy Liljegren, Max Domi · Deflected, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 3:20CBJBrendan GaunceAssists: Alexandre Texier, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–2
- P2 9:42TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Auston Matthews, Morgan Rielly · Snap, 0.04 xG4–2
- P2 11:05CBJDmitri VoronkovPPAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Ivan Provorov · Deflected, 0.16 xG4–3
- P2 12:43CBJKent JohnsonAssists: Emil Bemstrom · Backhand, 0.21 xG4–4
- P2 19:05TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: William Nylander, Morgan Rielly · Tip-in, 0.17 xG5–4
- P3 13:46CBJAdam FantilliAssists: Johnny Gaudreau · Snap, 0.05 xG5–5
- OT 2:56CBJJohnny GaudreauGWGAssists: Damon Severson, Justin Danforth · Backhand, 0.19 xG5–6
Penalties (10)
- P1 17:41CBJDmitri Voronkov: Interference2 min
- P2 8:18CBJKent Johnson: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 9:56CBJCole Sillinger: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:56TORCalle Jarnkrok: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:10TORWilliam Nylander: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:54CBJErik Gudbranson: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 18:54TORSimon Benoit: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:00CBJAlexandre Texier: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:12CBJDamon Severson: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:13TORMitch Marner: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Voronkov won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarner – Matthews – Knies14:04
xG 0.94–0.10 (90%)attempts 22–9goals 2–0
- Jarnkrok – Domi – Robertson8:26
xG 0.84–0.48 (64%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Tavares – Bertuzzi – Nylander11:38
xG 0.42–0.35 (55%)attempts 8–16goals 0–1
- Gregor – Kampf – McMann7:57
xG 0.02–0.14 (14%)attempts 1–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Liljegren10:44
xG 0.71–0.20 (78%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Brodie – Rielly18:09
xG 0.68–0.42 (62%)attempts 15–20goals 1–1
- McCabe – Benoit14:45
xG 0.76–0.54 (58%)attempts 18–13goals 1–2
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Marchenko – Voronkov – Chinakhov10:16
xG 0.13–0.23 (37%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Danforth – Fantilli10:58
xG 0.15–0.40 (27%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Bemstrom – Johnson – Sillinger10:39
xG 0.19–0.53 (27%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- Gaunce – Roslovic – Texier11:11
xG 0.13–0.91 (12%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Bean14:57
xG 0.49–0.43 (54%)attempts 14–15goals 2–1
- Severson – Jiricek16:16
xG 0.11–0.50 (17%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Provorov – Peeke11:58
xG 0.39–1.04 (27%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).