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Ice Lab

Fri, Dec 29, 2023·Nationwide Arena, Columbus

Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Columbus Blue Jackets 6 (OT)

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 69% of the time.

CBJ winsTOR wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:43Shot by Benoit, saved by Merzlikins
  3. P1 1:24Shot by Bemstrom, saved by Samsonov
  4. P1 4:14Goal by Marner (Rielly)+15 pts WP

    On ice: CBJ Gaudreau, Roslovic, Peeke, Bean, Danforth · TOR Brodie, Rielly, Marner, Matthews, Knies

  5. P1 7:01Shot by Matthews, saved by Merzlikins
  6. P1 7:22Shot by Domi, saved by Merzlikins
  7. P1 7:42Shot by Jarnkrok, saved by Merzlikins
  8. P1 7:42Shot by Jarnkrok, saved by Merzlikins
  9. P1 9:44Shot by Rielly, saved by Merzlikins
  10. P1 10:23Shot by Jarnkrok, saved by Merzlikins
  11. P1 11:17Goal by Sillinger (Bean)+16 pts WP

    On ice: CBJ Gudbranson, Bean, Bemstrom, Johnson, Sillinger · TOR Giordano, Domi, Nylander, Liljegren, Robertson

  12. P1 12:55Goal by Matthews (Marner)+17 pts WP

    On ice: CBJ Gaunce, Roslovic, Provorov, Peeke, Texier · TOR McCabe, Marner, Matthews, Benoit, Knies

  13. P1 13:05Shot by Danforth, saved by Samsonov
  14. P1 14:04Shot by Jarnkrok, saved by Merzlikins
  15. P1 14:44Shot by Severson, saved by Samsonov
  16. P1 15:02Shot by Nylander, saved by Merzlikins
  17. P1 16:24Shot by McMann, saved by Merzlikins
  18. P1 16:55Shot by Gregor, saved by Merzlikins
  19. P1 17:41Voronkov: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: CBJ Gudbranson, Bean, Marchenko, Voronkov, Chinakhov · TOR Brodie, Jarnkrok, Rielly, Domi, Robertson

  20. P1 18:06Shot by Tavares, saved by Merzlikins4v5
  21. P1 0:00Period end
  22. P2 0:00Period start
  23. P2 1:04Shot by McCabe, saved by Martin
  24. P2 1:17Shot by Benoit, saved by Martin
  25. P2 1:35Goal by Robertson (Liljegren, Domi)+16 pts WP

    On ice: CBJ Gudbranson, Gaudreau, Bean, Danforth, Fantilli · TOR Giordano, Jarnkrok, Domi, Liljegren, Robertson

  26. P2 2:38Shot by Texier, saved by Samsonov
  27. P2 3:20Goal by Gaunce (Texier, Severson)+16 pts WP

    On ice: CBJ Gaunce, Severson, Bean, Texier, Marchenko · TOR Tavares, McCabe, Bertuzzi, Nylander, Benoit

  28. P2 3:46Shot by Tavares, saved by Martin
  29. P2 4:48Shot by Benoit, saved by Martin
  30. P2 5:18Shot by Sillinger, saved by Samsonov
  31. P2 6:05Shot by Giordano, saved by Martin
  32. P2 6:42Shot by Gaudreau, saved by Samsonov
  33. P2 7:21Shot by Marner, saved by Martin
  34. P2 8:18Johnson: Too many men on the ice (2 min)5v6

    On ice: CBJ Severson, Texier, Marchenko, Voronkov, Chinakhov, Jiricek · TOR Giordano, Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Matthews

  35. P2 9:42Goal by Nylander (Matthews, Rielly)4v5+16 pts WP

    On ice: CBJ Gudbranson, Roslovic, Provorov, Texier · TOR Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Matthews

  36. P2 9:55Shot by McCabe, saved by Martin
  37. P2 9:56Sillinger: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: CBJ Severson, Bemstrom, Johnson, Sillinger, Jiricek · TOR Jarnkrok, McCabe, Domi, Benoit, Robertson

  38. P2 9:56Jarnkrok: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: CBJ Severson, Bemstrom, Johnson, Sillinger, Jiricek · TOR Jarnkrok, McCabe, Domi, Benoit, Robertson

  39. P2 10:10Nylander: Hooking (2 min)4v4

    On ice: CBJ Gaudreau, Severson, Jiricek, Fantilli · TOR Brodie, Tavares, Rielly, Nylander

  40. P2 10:23Shot by Marchenko, saved by Samsonov4v3
  41. P2 11:05Goal by Voronkov (Gaudreau, Provorov)4v3+16 pts WP

    On ice: CBJ Gaudreau, Provorov, Marchenko, Voronkov · TOR Giordano, Brodie, Marner

  42. P2 11:30Shot by Marner, saved by Martin4v4
  43. P2 12:43Goal by Johnson (Bemstrom)+22 pts WP

    On ice: CBJ Gudbranson, Roslovic, Bean, Bemstrom, Johnson · TOR Brodie, Jarnkrok, Rielly, Domi, Robertson

  44. P2 12:53Shot by Giordano, saved by Martin
  45. P2 18:54Gudbranson: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: CBJ Gudbranson, Gaunce, Roslovic, Bean, Texier · TOR McCabe, Marner, Matthews, Benoit, Knies

  46. P2 18:54Benoit: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: CBJ Gudbranson, Gaunce, Roslovic, Bean, Texier · TOR McCabe, Marner, Matthews, Benoit, Knies

  47. P2 19:00Texier: High sticking (2 min)

    On ice: CBJ Gaunce, Roslovic, Bean, Texier, Jiricek · TOR Giordano, Marner, Matthews, Liljegren, Knies

  48. P2 19:05Goal by Tavares (Nylander, Rielly)4v5+20 pts WP

    On ice: CBJ Severson, Provorov, Danforth, Sillinger · TOR Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Matthews

  49. P2 0:00Period end
  50. P3 0:00Period start
  51. P3 0:34Shot by Severson, saved by Samsonov
  52. P3 1:12Severson: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: CBJ Gaudreau, Severson, Danforth, Jiricek, Fantilli · TOR McCabe, Gregor, Liljegren, Kampf, McMann

  53. P3 2:13Marner: Tripping (2 min)4v5

    On ice: CBJ Roslovic, Bean, Texier, Jiricek · TOR Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Matthews

  54. P3 3:00Shot by Bean, saved by Samsonov4v4
  55. P3 4:29Shot by Matthews, saved by Martin
  56. P3 4:33Shot by Marner, saved by Martin
  57. P3 4:34Shot by Marner, saved by Martin
  58. P3 5:31Shot by Tavares, saved by Martin
  59. P3 6:12Shot by Peeke, saved by Samsonov
  60. P3 8:11Shot by Gaunce, saved by Samsonov
  61. P3 8:53Shot by Peeke, saved by Samsonov
  62. P3 9:08Shot by Voronkov, saved by Samsonov
  63. P3 11:22Shot by Gaunce, saved by Samsonov
  64. P3 13:46Goal by Fantilli (Gaudreau)+37 pts WP

    On ice: CBJ Gaudreau, Provorov, Peeke, Danforth, Fantilli · TOR McCabe, Gregor, Kampf, Benoit, McMann

  65. P3 15:22Shot by Rielly, saved by Martin
  66. P3 15:25Shot by Matthews, saved by Martin
  67. P3 16:21Shot by Benoit, saved by Martin
  68. P3 0:00Period end
  69. OT 0:00Period start
  70. OT 1:02Shot by Fantilli, saved by Samsonov3v3
  71. OT 2:56Goal by Gaudreau (Severson, Danforth)3v3+45 pts WP

    On ice: CBJ Gaudreau, Severson, Danforth, Fantilli · TOR Tavares, Rielly, Nylander

  72. OT 2:56Period end3v4
  73. OT 2:56Final4v4