Fri, Dec 29, 2023·Honda Center, Anaheim
Arizona Coyotes 2, Anaheim Ducks 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 111 | 114 | 07 | 232 |
| ANA | 010 | 07 | 011 | 028 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:38ARIClayton KellerPPGWGAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Alexander Kerfoot · Slap, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 10:05ARILawson CrouseAssists: Matias Maccelli · Slap, 0.13 xG2–0
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:53ANAIlya Lyubushkin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:52ANAMason McTavish: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:52ARILawson Crouse: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:08ARILogan Cooley: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:38ANASam Carrick: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:38ARIJack McBain: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:38ANASam Carrick: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:05ARITravis Dermott: Interference2 min
- P3 0:33ARIZachary Sanford: Holding2 min
- P3 5:27ANABrett Leason: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McBain won the faceoff against Zegras
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestSanford – Carcone – McBain7:50
xG 0.84–0.11 (88%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Zucker – O'Brien – Cooley8:21
xG 0.67–0.19 (78%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli9:57
xG 0.77–0.51 (60%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Kerfoot – Schmaltz – Keller11:22
xG 0.35–0.20 (63%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStecher – Välimäki13:39
xG 0.80–0.28 (74%)attempts 20–9goals 1–0
- Durzi – Kesselring10:41
xG 0.76–0.50 (60%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Dumba – Dermott11:22
xG 0.33–0.33 (50%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSilfverberg – Carrick – Johnston6:00
xG 0.26–0.08 (76%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Strome – Vatrano – McTavish8:10
xG 0.50–0.70 (42%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Henrique – Jones – Leason6:04
xG 0.01–0.23 (4%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Killorn – Terry – Zegras6:29
xG 0.04–0.87 (5%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Drysdale2:55
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Lyubushkin – Mintyukov12:52
xG 0.70–0.66 (52%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Fowler – Vaakanainen13:28
xG 0.18–0.75 (19%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).