Sat, Dec 30, 2023·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Minnesota Wild 2, Winnipeg Jets 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 09 | 114 | 113 | 236 |
| WPG | 212 | 110 | 110 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:59WPGAlex IafalloAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 14:38WPGNino NiederreiterAssists: Adam Lowry · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–2
- P2 6:45WPGNino NiederreiterGWGAssists: Josh Morrissey, Mason Appleton · Backhand, 0.23 xG0–3
- P2 10:05MINRyan HartmanPPAssists: Marcus Johansson, Frederick Gaudreau · Snap, 0.22 xG1–3
- P3 0:20MINMatt BoldyAssists: Kirill Kaprizov · Snap, 0.27 xG2–3
- P3 2:46WPGAxel Jonsson-FjallbyAssists: Dominic Toninato, Morgan Barron · Snap, 0.24 xG2–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 9:28MINRyan Hartman: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:13MINJon Merrill: Interference2 min
- P2 4:06WPGAdam Lowry: Holding2 min
- P2 8:11WPGMark Scheifele: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 9:28WPGBrenden Dillon: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:28MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:44MINJake Middleton: Holding2 min
- P2 14:58WPGNino Niederreiter: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 17:51WPGMark Scheifele: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:09MINJake Middleton: Fighting5 min
- P3 5:09WPGBrenden Dillon: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:16MINPatrick Maroon: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:28WPGGabriel Vilardi: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dewar won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Eriksson Ek – Kaprizov – Boldy7:49
xG 0.44–0.39 (53%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Johansson – Hartman – Rossi8:16
xG 0.45–0.68 (40%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Duhaime – Lettieri – Dewar4:53
xG 0.02–0.25 (8%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Maroon – Foligno – Gaudreau6:48
xG 0.12–0.61 (16%)attempts 2–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Middleton2:34
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Faber2:22
xG 0.10–0.17 (38%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Middleton – Faber10:36
xG 0.40–0.64 (39%)attempts 5–15goals 1–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Iafallo – Perfetti7:56
xG 0.72–0.16 (82%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton7:23
xG 0.88–0.47 (65%)attempts 12–8goals 2–1
- Toninato – Jonsson-Fjallby – Barron4:42
xG 0.31–0.08 (80%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Scheifele – Ehlers – Vilardi10:13
xG 0.32–0.23 (59%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Samberg8:27
xG 0.90–0.22 (80%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Schmidt – Morrissey2:30
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey11:40
xG 0.61–0.22 (73%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).