Sat, Dec 30, 2023·Amalie Arena, Tampa
New York Rangers 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 29 | 15 | 27 | 521 |
| TBL | 014 | 113 | 08 | 135 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:51NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Alexis Lafrenière · Snap, 0.24 xG1–0
- P1 7:36NYRVincent TrocheckGWGAssists: Jacob Trouba, Alexis Lafrenière · Wrist, 0.41 xG2–0
- P2 17:39TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nick Paul · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 18:30NYRChris KreiderAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 11:16NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
- P3 15:26NYRArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Adam Fox, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.11 xG5–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:38TBLHaydn Fleury: Holding2 min
- P1 11:38NYRWill Cuylle: Holding2 min
- P1 14:55NYRMika Zibanejad: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:34NYRK'Andre Miller: Interference2 min
- P2 9:12TBLBrayden Point: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:51NYRBraden Schneider: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 13:47TBLAnthony Cirelli: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 13:47NYRJacob Trouba: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:04TBLSteven Stamkos: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Goodrow won the faceoff against Paul
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestTrocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière11:17
xG 0.89–0.44 (67%)attempts 10–12goals 3–0
- Bonino – Brodzinski – Cuylle7:37
xG 0.40–0.20 (66%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Goodrow – Vesey9:37
xG 0.26–0.35 (43%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Kreider – Zibanejad10:58
xG 0.23–0.38 (38%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGustafsson – Schneider11:47
xG 0.95–0.52 (65%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
- Trouba – Miller14:16
xG 0.73–0.52 (58%)attempts 9–15goals 2–0
- Fox – Lindgren15:15
xG 0.20–0.48 (30%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Cirelli – Hagel5:33
xG 0.36–0.09 (79%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Paul – Eyssimont – Barré-Boulet4:23
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Cirelli3:44
xG 0.18–0.00 (98%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Point – Hagel5:35
xG 0.18–0.01 (93%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Raddysh5:08
xG 0.31–0.02 (95%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Fleury – Perbix2:49
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- de Haan – Raddysh10:40
xG 0.48–0.41 (54%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).