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Ice Lab

Sat, Dec 30, 2023·Amalie Arena, Tampa

New York Rangers 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 65% of the time.

TBL winsNYR wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:49Shot by Wheeler, saved by Vasilevskiy
  3. P1 1:31Shot by Cernak, saved by Shesterkin
  4. P1 1:51Goal by Panarin (Trocheck, Lafrenière)+15 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Hedman, Kucherov, Paul, Point, Perbix · NYR Trocheck, Gustafsson, Panarin, Schneider, Lafrenière

  5. P1 2:20Shot by Eyssimont, saved by Shesterkin
  6. P1 3:43Shot by Motte, saved by Shesterkin
  7. P1 5:02Shot by Goodrow, saved by Vasilevskiy
  8. P1 5:28Shot by Hedman, saved by Shesterkin
  9. P1 5:43Shot by Raddysh, saved by Shesterkin
  10. P1 6:25Shot by Zibanejad, saved by Vasilevskiy
  11. P1 7:32Shot by Trouba, saved by Vasilevskiy
  12. P1 7:34Shot by Trocheck, saved by Vasilevskiy
  13. P1 7:36Goal by Trocheck (Trouba, Lafrenière)+14 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Hedman, Motte, Sheary, Barré-Boulet, Perbix · NYR Trocheck, Trouba, Panarin, Miller, Lafrenière

  14. P1 9:52Shot by Raddysh, saved by Shesterkin
  15. P1 10:06Shot by Paul, saved by Shesterkin
  16. P1 11:38Fleury: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Kucherov, Fleury, Point, Cernak, Hagel · NYR Bonino, Brodzinski, Fox, Lindgren, Cuylle

  17. P1 11:38Cuylle: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Kucherov, Fleury, Point, Cernak, Hagel · NYR Bonino, Brodzinski, Fox, Lindgren, Cuylle

  18. P1 12:54Shot by Panarin, saved by Vasilevskiy4v4
  19. P1 14:49Shot by de Haan, saved by Shesterkin
  20. P1 14:55Zibanejad: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: TBL de Haan, Motte, Cernak, Eyssimont, Jeannot · NYR Wheeler, Kreider, Zibanejad, Fox, Lindgren

  21. P1 16:00Shot by Hedman, saved by Shesterkin5v4
  22. P1 17:33Shot by Sheary, saved by Shesterkin
  23. P1 17:55Shot by Motte, saved by Shesterkin
  24. P1 18:02Shot by Cernak, saved by Shesterkin
  25. P1 18:46Shot by Pitlick, saved by Vasilevskiy
  26. P1 19:58Shot by Cirelli, saved by Shesterkin
  27. P1 19:59Shot by Cirelli, saved by Shesterkin
  28. P1 0:00Period end
  29. P2 0:00Period start
  30. P2 2:29Shot by Cirelli, saved by Shesterkin
  31. P2 2:47Shot by Trouba, saved by Vasilevskiy
  32. P2 3:13Shot by Bonino, saved by Vasilevskiy
  33. P2 7:01Shot by Eyssimont, saved by Shesterkin
  34. P2 8:17Shot by Goodrow, saved by Vasilevskiy
  35. P2 8:34Miller: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Hedman, Kucherov, Paul, Point, Perbix · NYR Trocheck, Trouba, Panarin, Miller, Lafrenière

  36. P2 9:03Shot by Kucherov, saved by Shesterkin5v4
  37. P2 9:12Point: High sticking (2 min)5v4

    On ice: TBL Stamkos, Hedman, Kucherov, Paul, Point · NYR Kreider, Zibanejad, Trouba, Lindgren

  38. P2 9:28Shot by Cernak, saved by Shesterkin4v4
  39. P2 9:57Shot by Lafrenière, saved by Vasilevskiy4v4
  40. P2 13:59Shot by Stamkos, saved by Shesterkin
  41. P2 14:30Shot by de Haan, saved by Shesterkin
  42. P2 14:34Shot by Raddysh, saved by Shesterkin
  43. P2 14:45Shot by de Haan, saved by Shesterkin
  44. P2 16:00Shot by Motte, saved by Shesterkin
  45. P2 16:51Schneider: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Stamkos, Hedman, Kucherov, Cernak, Cirelli · NYR Trocheck, Panarin, Fox, Schneider, Lafrenière

  46. P2 17:33Shot by Stamkos, saved by Shesterkin5v4
  47. P2 17:34Shot by Paul, saved by Shesterkin5v4
  48. P2 17:35Shot by Point, saved by Shesterkin5v4
  49. P2 17:39Goal by Kucherov (Stamkos, Paul)5v4+15 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Stamkos, Hedman, Kucherov, Paul, Point · NYR Bonino, Goodrow, Trouba, Lindgren

  50. P2 18:30Goal by Kreider (Trocheck, Wheeler)+17 pts WP

    On ice: TBL de Haan, Motte, Raddysh, Cirelli, Hagel · NYR Wheeler, Kreider, Trocheck, Trouba, Miller

  51. P2 0:00Period end
  52. P3 0:00Period start
  53. P3 4:19Shot by Hagel, saved by Shesterkin
  54. P3 5:55Shot by Cernak, saved by Shesterkin
  55. P3 7:18Shot by Schneider, saved by Vasilevskiy
  56. P3 7:27Shot by Hedman, saved by Shesterkin
  57. P3 7:54Shot by Hedman, saved by Shesterkin
  58. P3 10:53Shot by Zibanejad, saved by Vasilevskiy
  59. P3 11:16Goal by Panarin (Trocheck)+4 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Hedman, Motte, Cernak, Cirelli, Jeannot · NYR Trocheck, Panarin, Fox, Lindgren, Lafrenière

  60. P3 12:29Shot by Kucherov, saved by Shesterkin6v5
  61. P3 13:08Shot by Paul, saved by Shesterkin
  62. P3 13:46Shot by Point, saved by Shesterkin6v5
  63. P3 13:47Cirelli: Roughing (2 min)6v5

    On ice: TBL Stamkos, Hedman, Kucherov, Point, Cirelli, Hagel · NYR Bonino, Trocheck, Trouba, Panarin, Miller

  64. P3 13:47Trouba: Roughing (2 min)6v5

    On ice: TBL Stamkos, Hedman, Kucherov, Point, Cirelli, Hagel · NYR Bonino, Trocheck, Trouba, Panarin, Miller

  65. P3 15:04Stamkos: Holding (2 min)5v4

    On ice: TBL Stamkos, Kucherov, Paul, Point, Raddysh · NYR Kreider, Zibanejad, Fox, Lindgren

  66. P3 15:26Goal by Panarin (Fox, Zibanejad)3v40 pts WP

    On ice: TBL de Haan, Glendening, Cernak · NYR Kreider, Zibanejad, Panarin, Fox

  67. P3 16:03Shot by Raddysh, saved by Shesterkin
  68. P3 18:47Shot by Brodzinski, saved by Vasilevskiy
  69. P3 18:49Shot by Cuylle, saved by Vasilevskiy
  70. P3 18:51Shot by Kreider, saved by Vasilevskiy
  71. P3 0:00Period end
  72. P3 0:00Final