Sun, Dec 31, 2023·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Winnipeg Jets 3, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 08 | 18 | 213 | 329 |
| MIN | 112 | 06 | 18 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:07MINMarcus FolignoAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Frederick Gaudreau · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 2:08WPGAdam LowryAssists: Mason Appleton, Dylan DeMelo · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–1
- P3 3:56MINFrederick GaudreauPPAssists: Marcus Johansson, Nic Petan · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 4:52WPGVladislav NamestnikovPPAssists: Cole Perfetti, Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 7:32WPGDominic ToninatoGWGAssists: Brenden Dillon, Neal Pionk · Backhand, 0.18 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:02WPGAdam Lowry: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:02MINPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:21MINZach Bogosian: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:44MINDakota Mermis: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 1:59WPGNeal Pionk: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:40MINJake Middleton: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Gaudreau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Lowry – Appleton10:47
xG 0.74–0.25 (75%)attempts 15–16goals 1–1
- Scheifele – Ehlers – Vilardi13:20
xG 0.61–0.34 (65%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Toninato – Jonsson-Fjallby – Barron6:15
xG 0.16–0.06 (73%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Iafallo – Perfetti6:48
xG 0.06–0.16 (29%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Samberg12:15
xG 0.12–0.03 (81%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Dillon – Pionk14:51
xG 0.69–0.60 (53%)attempts 15–20goals 0–1
- DeMelo – Morrissey17:45
xG 0.46–0.41 (53%)attempts 11–21goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy12:58
xG 0.43–0.33 (57%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Hartman – Petan – Rossi10:24
xG 0.19–0.20 (49%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Duhaime – Dewar – Lucchini8:39
xG 0.14–0.21 (40%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Maroon – Foligno – Gaudreau9:53
xG 0.23–0.69 (25%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Spurgeon14:43
xG 0.48–0.30 (62%)attempts 21–6goals 1–0
- Bogosian – Mermis11:32
xG 0.30–0.51 (37%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
- Middleton – Faber15:36
xG 0.14–0.85 (15%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).