Sun, Dec 31, 2023·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Boston Bruins 5, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 18 | 19 | 37 | 524 |
| DET | 06 | 213 | 111 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:08BOSTrent FredericAssists: David Pastrnak, Parker Wotherspoon · Backhand, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 4:25BOSTrent FredericAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 13:01DETJake WalmanAssists: Dylan Larkin, Lucas Raymond · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 16:42DETBen ChiarotAssists: Andrew Copp, Joseph Veleno · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 3:52BOSCharlie CoyleAssists: Charlie McAvoy, Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 17:59BOSJake DeBruskENGWGAssists: Trent Frederic, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.52 xG4–2
- P3 18:38DETJ.T. CompherPPAssists: Alex DeBrincat, David Perron · Wrist, 0.32 xG4–3
- P3 19:36BOSPavel ZachaENAssists: David Pastrnak, Hampus Lindholm · Wrist, 0.44 xG5–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 8:35BOSJake DeBrusk: Holding2 min
- P1 11:23DETBen Chiarot: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:23DETBen Chiarot: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:23BOSMorgan Geekie: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:22BOSJohn Beecher: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:46BOSCharlie McAvoy: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:46DETAlex DeBrincat: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:55BOSDavid Pastrnak: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:42BOSGeorgii Merkulov: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 18:07DETDaniel Sprong: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:37BOSCharlie McAvoy: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:30BOSJake DeBrusk: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zacha won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestHeinen – Frederic – Merkulov5:02
xG 0.24–0.12 (68%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Marchand – Coyle – DeBrusk10:54
xG 0.33–0.31 (52%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Steen – Lauko – Beecher2:08
xG 0.04–0.10 (29%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Frederic – Steen – Lauko2:31
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Lohrei4:42
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Wotherspoon6:02
xG 0.19–0.24 (44%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- McAvoy – Lohrei9:05
xG 0.06–0.20 (22%)attempts 5–8goals 1–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestCopp – Rasmussen – Veleno4:16
xG 0.22–0.09 (72%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Fabbri – Sprong – Veleno3:16
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Fabbri – Fischer – Sprong2:25
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Kane – Compher – DeBrincat10:26
xG 0.23–0.26 (48%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWalman – Seider13:02
xG 0.78–0.23 (78%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
- Maatta – Gostisbehere9:25
xG 0.33–0.23 (60%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Petry – Chiarot15:24
xG 0.30–0.52 (37%)attempts 10–17goals 1–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).