Sun, Dec 31, 2023·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New York Islanders 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 014 | 012 | 112 | 138 |
| PIT | 111 | 112 | 115 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:18PITLars EllerAssists: Jansen Harkins, Valtteri Puustinen · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 2:20PITNoel AcciariGWGAssists: Drew O'Connor · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–2
- P3 13:51NYISamuel BolducUnassisted · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 19:17PITLars EllerENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.71 xG1–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:07PITJohn Ludvig: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:07NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:31PITSidney Crosby: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:26NYIBo Horvat: Holding2 min
- P1 19:33NYISimon Holmstrom: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:22NYIMatt Martin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 8:34NYIAlexander Romanov: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:34PITRickard Rakell: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:29PITDrew O'Connor: Holding2 min
- P3 19:25NYIKyle Palmieri: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P3 19:25NYIBo Horvat: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Acciari won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Horvat – Barzal11:18
xG 1.30–0.46 (74%)attempts 26–13goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas6:05
xG 0.37–0.16 (70%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Nelson – Fasching11:25
xG 0.42–0.40 (51%)attempts 11–14goals 0–1
- Pageau – Gauthier – Holmstrom8:38
xG 0.03–0.72 (4%)attempts 4–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Aho10:36
xG 0.87–0.25 (78%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Reilly – Dobson2:44
xG 0.28–0.00 (99%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Mayfield – Aho2:05
xG 0.35–0.08 (81%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Smith – O'Connor11:41
xG 0.93–0.31 (75%)attempts 20–6goals 0–0
- Eller – Harkins – Puustinen5:17
xG 0.33–0.20 (62%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rakell – Guentzel12:54
xG 0.63–0.65 (49%)attempts 25–17goals 0–0
- Carter – Hinostroza – Acciari5:44
xG 0.07–0.45 (13%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Graves15:54
xG 1.20–0.81 (60%)attempts 27–19goals 1–0
- Letang – Pettersson18:06
xG 1.08–1.02 (51%)attempts 22–21goals 1–0
- Ruhwedel – Ludvig8:10
xG 0.02–0.67 (3%)attempts 5–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).